COVID Cases Rise 63% In King County, But Hospitalizations Stable

SEATTLE — As a surge in COVID-19 cases fueled by the delta variant gains more ground in King County, public health data continue to show vaccines are highly protective against both infections and serious complications, officials said Friday.

Dr. Jeff Duchin, King County's health officer, hosted a news briefing Friday morning to explain the context behind the latest numbers and share a few promising signs, despite the unwelcome rise in illness.

"Over the past seven days, we are reporting 233 news cases daily, which is a 63 percent increase over last week," he said. "The number of new cases has quadrupled since June 28, when we were seeing 55 cases a day, and represents a 300 percent increase."

Overall, Duchin said case counts are up across age groups and regions, but the sharpest increase is seen among unvaccinated people under 50. By contrast, hospitalization rates have held steady, averaging between 30 and 40 admissions per week, which he credits to exceptionally high immunization rates in older adults.

"We have to keep in mind that our hospitalization rate lags a few weeks behind increases in cases, but I believe that we're seeing the tremendous benefits from our vaccination program protecting our oldest adults who are at highest risk," Duchin said. "It's really important to understand that when looking at these hospitalization rates, and their relative stability compared to case rates, that's likely because 88 percent of King County residents 50 and older are fully vaccinated. That's a phenomenal proportion of residents who are at highest risk of hospitalization who are getting protection."

No new deaths in a week

The health officer also noted that King County recorded no deaths linked to COVID-19 over the last week, compared to an average of 10 deaths per day right before vaccination efforts began. However, the more infectious delta variant continues to complicate the fight against COVID-19, for both vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Duchin said researchers identified delta in 78 percent of the positive test samples analyzed in King County during a recent round of genetic sequencing.

"The delta has thrown the world a nasty curveball and changed the course of the pandemic from where we had hoped to be today in the U.S.," he said. "Because people infected with the delta variant produce 1,000 times more virus, it's much more contagious than earlier variants, which means that people get infected easier and faster and are more likely to spread the virus to others. Reports also suggest that the infections can cause more severe illness among unvaccinated adults."

While the data show risks for fully vaccinated people are substantially lower in general, delta has proven to be more effective than others at causing "breakthrough" infections, which can quickly spread to others. A new report published Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that a recent outbreak connected to large gatherings in Massachusettes was possible, even though a majority of infections were among people who were fully immunized. Researchers said the events attracted thousands of tourists from out of state, and infected people reported attending densely packed events.

"It's important to understand that most breakthrough infections that are reported are seen in the minority of vaccinated people and are relatively mild," Duchin said. "But they can lead to spread from vaccination people to others. That's one reason why mask-wearing is recommended for everyone in indoor public spaces at this time."

Recent Seattle outbreak linked to indoor gym event

In King County, the health officer said one recent outbreak was linked to an indoor charity event at a Seattle fitness center in late June, where 14 of the 16 people infected were confirmed to be fully vaccinated. Duchin said the incident is one example of why it is important to keep up multiple layers of protection, including avoiding crowded indoor spaces, being mindful of ventilation and continuing to wear masks indoors.

"Our recent outbreaks are really highlighting the risk of COVID-19 transmission in settings where groups of people have prolonged indoor contact," Duchin said. "These outbreaks, like others reported nationally, include settings where both unvaccinated people, people with unknown vaccination status and vaccinated people were together and not wearing masks, and instances of infection, even in vaccinated people, engaging in indoor activities in a poorly ventilated space without masks, where the majority were vaccinated."

Even as delta surges, 'breakthrough' cases remain rare and mild

Despite the outbreaks and the increased risk from delta, the health officer said breakthrough cases continue to be exceedingly rare, and the vaccines are still doing what they are designed to do —preventing serious illness, hospitalization or death.

"There were about 1,450,000 people in King County fully vaccinated as of July 16, and there have been 1,489 cases reported among fully vaccinated people," Duchin said. "That is one-tenth of one percent of the fully vaccinated. With respect to hospitalizations among the fully vaccinated, the number is 62, which is less than one one-hundredth of one percent of those fully vaccinated."

Duchin said King County has seen just 11 coronavirus-related deaths among fully vaccinated people to date, amounting to less than one-thousandth of a percent.

89% of recent hospitalizations among unvaccinated people

By comparison, public health data show 81 percent of King County's cases over the last month were among people who were not fully vaccinated, along with 89 percent of its hospitalizations and 91 percent of coronavirus-related deaths.

"Another way of looking at this is that during this time period, residents who were not fully vaccinated were 10 times more likely to test positive for COVID-19, 15 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19, and 12 times more likely to die from COVID-19 related illness," Duchin said.

King County remains one of the most vaccinated regions in the United States, and roughly 81 percent of residents 12 and older have at least their first dose, and 75 percent are fully vaccinated. Still, a few hundred thousand people remain unprotected, including 370,000 residents who are eligible. Recently, King County has seen a promising trend in new vaccinations.

"We've had 1,500 people receiving a first dose in the last 24 hours alone, which is on par with one of our highest volume days in July," Duchin said. "It's very gratifying to see people beginning to seek vaccination right now in the context of the COVID surge, and we encourage folks to continue to do that."

More than 300,000 children under 12 are not yet eligible for vaccinations, and thousands of residents have reduced defenses from weakened immune systems.

"It's also important to know that not everyone responds equally well to vaccination and some people have lower protection than others," Duchin said. "This is especially an issue for certain people who are immunocompromised and possibly older adults who have underlying health conditions that put them at increased risk."

While transmission remains in the substantial range in King County, Duchin said it is vital for everyone to keep up multiple preventative measures, including consistent indoor masking and avoiding places with crowds or poor ventilation. Health officials also urge anyone who thinks they were exposed or begins to have even mild symptoms to isolate themselves and seek testing immediately.

Duchin concluded Friday's briefing with some hope amid continued uncertainty:

"We will get past this. We will defeat COVID-19 largely from causing severe illness and hospitalizations, but it may take longer than many of us desire. It may take months to years, but it will continually improve over time. There remains uncertainty about the future course of the pandemic, and it's not going to be a smooth ride. It's likely going to be one with continued unanticipated twists and turns and intermittent setbacks amid the overall progress. But ultimately the threat of COVID-19, if we continue to vaccinate enough people, will recede."