COVID Plateaus In King County, But Hospitalizations Remain High

SEATTLE — King County's delta-fueled COVID-19 surge may finally be hitting a plateau, but transmission rates remain high and it could take a few more weeks before hospitals see needed relief. Dr. Jeff Duchin, King County's health officer, hosted a briefing on the trends Friday afternoon, offering his latest deep dive into the complex evolution of the pandemic. While cases counts continued to soar through August, recent indicators show some promising signs.

"Over the last seven days, we've seen an average of almost 600 cases per day, which is a 72 percent increase in cases since I last spoke to you three weeks ago," Duchin said. "Over the past 10 days, cases have plateaued in all age groups, and I hope we will turn the corner and see cases decrease from this high level over the coming weeks. But the trend and future course of the pandemic remains uncertain."

Despite the welcome stabilization, Duchin noted weekly incidence rates remain 10 times higher than they were in late June, and well above the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's "high transmission" threshold. Hospital admission rates are four to five times higher than they were two months ago.

"As you have all heard, hospitalizations in King County and across the state are at their highest occupancy rates and their fullest point since the pandemic began," he said. "Our health care workers are stressed and stretched thin. It's especially frustrating for them to see so many preventable, serious illnesses among unvaccinated people. In King County, 11 percent of acute care beds and 21 percent of ICU beds are occupied by COVID patients — levels of hospitalization that we haven't seen since December 2020."

COVID hospitalizations place 'extreme stress' on King County's health care system

Over the last week, Duchin said 164 residents were hospitalized for COVID-19, representing roughly one new admission every hour. With strong vaccination rates among the oldest age groups, the majority of new hospitalizations are among younger adults who are not fully vaccinated.

"In the last two weeks, nearly 37 percent of those hospitalized with COVID-19 were 25 to 49 years old," he said. "Although COVID-19 hospitalization rates remain low for children and youth, we've seen a small increase in hospitalizations recently."

Even when case counts begin to decline, it may take weeks before hospitals see the effects. Officials said it's vital to bring down transmission rates to protect a health care system teetering on the brink of crisis.

"The number of hospitalized patients across the county is placing extreme stress on our health care system, and our hospitals are doing everything they can to continue to provide care for every patient," Duchin said. "According to the Northwest Healthcare Response Network, our area intensive care units are full and hospitals are stretching and extending staff and space and using every bed available. Because the hospital beds are very full, people may have longer wait times in emergency departments, ambulances may be experiencing delays and our hospitals are working closely with one another ... on a daily basis to support each other with [the] surge and to transfer patients when possible."

August analysis shows strong vaccine effectiveness

While the latest surge has further complicated the pandemic response and caused significant strains, the health officer said King County's data also illustrate the importance and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines.

Even without adjusting for age, residents who were not fully vaccinated were four times more likely to test positive for COVID-19, four times more likely to die, and nine times more likely to be hospitalized over the last month. When using calculations that account for age, the differences are even starker.

"When we adjust for age, compared to fully vaccinated residents, people who are not fully vaccinated are six times more likely to test positive for COVID-19, 37 times more likely to be hospitalized with COVID-19, and 67 times more likely to die due to COVID-19 related illness."

Using data from the state Department of Health, Public Health - Seattle & King County assembled two graphs to illustrate the difference vaccination made in the rates.

"I think these two graphics really visually communicate how beneficial our vaccinations are in preventing both cases and hospitalizations," Duchin said. "Another way of looking at this is among our 1.5 million fully vaccinated residents, about four-tenths of one percent had a positive test following vaccination. About one one-hundredth of one percent have been hospitalized for COVID-19 and about two one-thousandth of one percent have died due to COVID-19."

King County reaches new milestone; increase in demand expected heading into fall

King County this week reached a new vaccination milestone, having reached at least 70 percent of residents with at least one dose of vaccine across every eligible age group, and among all racial and ethnic groups. According to the state's data, more than 75 percent of King County residents 12 and older are fully vaccinated.

"We should feel proud and gratified and be very pleased by the large number of people in our county that have been vaccinated, which is providing us with a significant level of protection against the overwhelming impacts that some of the other parts of our country are seeing," Duchin said.

Duchin said another 10,400 King County residents sought vaccination for the first time over the past week, a 14 percent increase from a low point in July, and he expects demand will continue to grow.

"We're anticipating an increase in vaccine demand in the coming weeks as people respond to vaccine requirements, and anticipation that more people will become eligible for booster shots, and more people get motivated to be vaccinated based on the threat of this delta virus and increasing evidence of the effectiveness of vaccines preventing serious illness, hospitalization and death, as well as infections and spread," Duchin said. "We're planning to scale up and meet the demand and we anticipate some partnership sites will be reopening or expanding in the coming weeks."

Plenty of uncertainty remains as school returns, holidays approach

With early signs that the latest wave is starting to crest, the health officer cautioned that the pandemic remains on an uncertain path heading toward another winter. That's why officials continue to reiterate the importance of "layered protection," including indoor masking, avoiding crowded and poorly ventilated spaces, seeking testing, and, of course, vaccination.

"I would not be surprised if we saw a decrease in cases over the next weeks, through September," Duchin said. "But I'm very worried about what may happen when our children come back to school for in-person learning, and of the holidays again. There's the Labor Day holiday, then we have Thanksgiving and Christmas again, people come indoors. We had a winter surge last year. I'm very concerned that we may see progressive surges, peaks, then declines, then further surges. To the extent we protect ourselves through vaccination, I think the extent of these future surges will be limited, as long as our viruses remain susceptible to the vaccines, as they have been to date."