Delta Surge Shows No Signs Of Slowing Down In Washington

WASHINGTON — The state's latest COVID-19 situation report shows case counts and hospital admissions at their highest levels, and the officials expect the delta-driven surge will continue to build in the coming weeks. The more infectious variant is now believed to be associated with nearly all new cases in Washington.

The Washington State Department of Health released its biweekly report Thursday afternoon, the same day that state hospital officials warned the health care system was contending with more COVID-19 patients than any other point in the pandemic. The state's data confirms the concerning trends, finding the prevalence of COVID-19 quadrupled across Washington between July 8 and Aug. 6. By the end of the first week of August, roughly one in 156 Washingtonians had active COVID-19 infections, the report found.

Despite a slight increase in immunizations, health officials estimate close to 45 percent of the state's population remains susceptible to infection. Hospitalization rates have increased for younger adults, including people ages 20 to 39, and unvaccinated people are 10 times more likely to be hospitalized than fully vaccinated people, the report found.

With COVID-19 hospitalizations already at record highs and many hospitals at or nearing capacity, officials warn a prolonged surge could overwhelm the health care system.

"Vaccinations will help us in the long term, but in order to get through the short term, we need to be wearing face coverings right now to control the spread of COVID-19," said Dr. Scott Lindquist, the acting state health officer. "We absolutely need to realize that it could literally be any one of us, or our loved ones, needing hospital care in the near future. At this point, to ensure that care is available when we need it, our hospitals are counting on every one of us to mask up and get vaccinated."

Here are a few highlights in the report, noted by the Washington State Department of Health:

• Estimates of statewide transmission have continued the sharp increase noted in the previous situation report. On Aug. 6, the best estimate of the effective reproductive number (Re, which tells us how many new people each COVID-19 case will infect) was 1.49. In July, this number was an estimated 1.46. In June, Re was an estimated 0.70, which means that in a short period of time, transmission trends have reversed from earlier successes and are continuing to climb rapidly. A reproductive number above one means that cases will continue to increase. To see cases decline, the reproductive number needs to stay well below 1.0 for a substantial amount of time.
• COVID-19 prevalence has nearly quadrupled between July 8 and August 6. Our best current estimate of prevalence is 0.64% as of Aug. 6, which means about 1 in 156 Washingtonians has an active COVID-19 infection. These levels are similar to those at the height of the third wave in the winter of 2020. Our July 8 estimate for prevalence was 0.17%, or 1 in every 588 Washingtonians — meaning nearly 4 times as many people now have active COVID infections in just one month’s time. About 45% of the population is still susceptible to COVID-19 infection.
• Hospitalizations are at an all-time high. Both total beds and intensive care unit (ICU) beds occupied by COVID-19 patients have increased sharply, exceeding the previous high point of winter’s third wave. The seven-day rolling average for hospital admissions declined to a low of 29 as of June 16 and remained low through July 8. As of Aug. 6, however, the seven-day average of admissions has tripled to 96, and this increase continues in the incomplete data. Hospitalizations are also increasing in younger ages, notably 20-29 and 30-39.
• Vaccination continues to prevent serious illness. Unvaccinated people ages 16-44 and 45-64 are 10 times more likely to be hospitalized than those who are fully vaccinated. Admissions are about 6 times higher for unvaccinated people ages 65 and up. If the entire population were to experience the rates of hospitalizations currently seen in the unvaccinated, the hospital system would be completely overwhelmed.
• Immunity trends saw modest increases. On Aug. 6, the best model-based estimate of statewide population immunity (from either vaccination or prior infection) was 54.7%, an increase of just 2.8% since the July 8 estimate in the previous situation report. Immunity from prior infection was about 15.5%, meaning that without vaccinations the vast majority of Washington State would have no protection against infection — further highlighting the essential role of vaccination.
• Case rates increased sharply in most Washington counties. Twelve counties had 14-day rates of new cases between 100 and 200 per 100,000 people. Sixteen counties had rates between 200 and 300 per 100,000 people. Five counties (Pierce, Spokane, Pacific, Asotin, Lewis) had rates between 300-500 per 100,000. Four counties (Walla Walla, Cowlitz, Benton, Franklin) had cases 500 or more per 100,000. All counties have transmission levels considered substantial or high by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
• Death rates are fairly flat, with some variability. The seven-day rolling average has varied between 5 and 10 deaths per day since March 23 and is currently at 6 per day as of July 30.
• Delta variant is now dominant. About 98% of cases are estimated to be caused by the Delta variant.

Read the full report on the DOH website.