King County's Delta Surge Is On The Decline

SEATTLE — King County's top health official hosted his first COVID-19 briefing in a few weeks Friday and came bearing promising signs that the worst of the summer surge has passed. While transmission rates remain stubbornly high, all metrics have kept up declines since at least mid-September, including case counts, hospitalizations and deaths.

Dr. Jeff Duchin, health officer for Public Health - Seattle & King County, said the county averaged 445 cases each day over the last week, representing a decrease of about 8 percent from the week before. The rate of new cases by population has kept up a gradual descent, now down 26 percent from an Aug. 11 peak.

Duchin said case counts have fallen among all age groups but continue to run highest among younger adults and in the south and southeast portions of King County. Hospitalization rates have fallen similarly, with just under 100 new COVID-19 admissions in the last seven days, down another 10 percent from the week before. Overall, the number of active COVID-19 patients is down substantially from the highs of last month.

"Hospitals throughout the county and the region continue to experience stress from very high patient volumes and high acuity cases with longer patient stays," Duchin said. "However, overall COVID hospitalizations are declining and that's helping. Currently, there are 192 hospitalized, confirmed COVID-19 patients in King County health care facilities, and that's down 40 percent from the recent peak of 320 on Sept. 9."

While breakthrough cases do occur, the health officer said the risk of infection, hospitalization and death remains much higher for those who remain unvaccinated.

"The vast majority of our COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to be among people who are unvaccinated," Duchin said. "In the past 30 days, 66 percent of cases, 78 percent of hospitalizations and 79 percent of deaths are among people who are not vaccinated."

When analyzing the local data to compare risk among those in the same age groups, the health officer said the contrast in protection is even more stark.

"After we adjust for age, people who are not fully vaccinated are eight times more likely to test positive for COVID-19, 46 times more likely to be hospitalized for COVID-19, and 78 times more likely to die," Duchin said.

The good news, he said, is that King County's immunization rates continue to reach new highs, which should help protect against further surges of severe illnesses, hospital strains and avoidable deaths.

"Vaccination is our most important protection against future large surges, and current vaccines are effective against the widespread delta variant," Duchin said. "Booster doses can improve the protection we get from vaccines, and a vaccine for school-aged children is on the horizon, so these will further protect our community."

King County hits 81% full vaccination rate among eligible residents

As of this week, King County reached an 81 percent full vaccination rate for residents 12 and older, and 70 percent of the entire population, including hundreds of thousands of young children who are not yet eligible.

"At the same time, we have approximately 566,000 King County residents — over half a million — not fully vaccinated," Duchin said. "This includes about a quarter of a million eligible adults who have not yet started and 110,000 adults who have started but have not completed the series, as well as 308,000 ineligible children."

If Pfizer's vaccine receives approval for in children 5 to 11, which Duchin said could happen by late October or early November, the county expects 180,000 younger residents will become eligible for shots.

So far, Duchin said the return of in-person learning has not resulted in a significant spike in cases linked to classrooms, but he cautioned it was difficult to predict whether that will hold through the fall and winter months. Overall, about 70 percent of currently eligible youth are fully vaccinated, but rates vary widely by region, averaging higher in north King County and lower in the south. Duchin said public health would continue to monitor the trends for signs of concern and continue efforts to raise vaccination rates where they are lagging.

More uncertainty is ahead, but strong vaccination rates could curb future surges

With Halloween just a few weeks away, the health officer said he was confident that trick-or-treating could go on with relatively low risk.

"I think folks should feel comfortable about outdoor Halloween activities," Duchin said. "Particularly, trick-or-treating I think is going to be safe for children outdoors, in small groups, particularly family groups or people that they're otherwise socializing with."

For indoor celebrations, health officials point to the same guidelines as any other gathering: Larger groups are riskier, masks add a layer of protection and good ventilation is key.

Looking more broadly to the fall and winter ahead, Duchin said he saw reasons for cautious optimism, tempered by the relative uncertainty of how the pandemic continues to evolve.

"I expect future waves and I expect a winter surge. Given our vaccination rates, the size and impact of future surges should be lower than in the past. Although, they could be substantial if enough people remain, or become, susceptible. There are currently about a quarter of a million unvaccinated people and [308,000] ineligible people in the county, and that's enough 'dry wood' to sustain a serious surge. So, we can't predict with certainty how the virus will evolve, with respect to variants or evasion of immunity from current vaccines — those are additional unknowns. But the bottom line for me is that the big picture COVID-19 pandemic forecast is improving. Primarily thanks to the vaccines, but the pandemic is not going to end quickly and it's not going to necessarily end predictably, but gradually."

In closing, the health officer said he believed King County was entering another transition in the pandemic, moving away from larger, more damaging surges to a time where the threat can be managed more effectively — provided people stay vigilant and continue to get vaccinated.