Puget Sound Spring Outlook: Slightly Cooler With Average Rain

SEATTLE — With spring's formal arrival arriving Sunday, the last of the seasonal predictions was unveiled Thursday, as climatologists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their 2022 Spring Outlook.

The annual preview outlines temperature, precipitation, drought, and flooding probabilities across the United States from April through June. For the second year running, forecasters see prolonged drought conditions impacting a wide swath of the West, excluding western Washington, northern Idaho, western Montana, and northwest Oregon.

"Severe to exceptional drought has persisted in some areas of the West since the summer of 2020 and drought has expanded to the southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley," said Jon Gottschalck, head of forecast operations at the National Weather Service. "With nearly 60% of the continental U.S. experiencing minor to exceptional drought conditions, this is the largest drought coverage we've seen in the U.S. since 2013."

Nearly all of the contiguous United States could be in for a warmer than normal spring, apart from the Pacific Northwest, where Washington is favored to see temperatures running cooler than average.

Turning to rain, Washington is looking at equal chances for its average spring precipitation, while much of the West and Southwest are likely to see a drier spring. Only the west coast of Alaska, the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions are favored to see a more rainy spring.

According to NOAA climatologists, spring flooding risks will be greatest in the Dakotas, with minor to moderate risks forecast for portions of the Southeast and Midwest. Federal hydrologists also evaluated snowpack conditions, soil saturation, precipitation and other factors and determined spring snowmelt was unlikely to cause flooding in the West.

NOAA notes its seasonal outlooks offer a way for communities and residents to prepare for more likely outcomes, based on several factors, but they do not rule out the chance for errant weather patterns.

"NOAA produces seasonal outlooks to help communities prepare for weather and environmental conditions that are likely during the coming months to minimize impacts on lives and livelihoods," officials explain. "Heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding, even in areas where the overall risk is considered low. Rainfall intensity and location can only be accurately forecast days in the future, therefore flood risk can change rapidly."

In the near term, the first week of spring could bring Puget Sound its first 60 degree days of the year on Tuesday and Wednesday. Sporadic rain showers remain in the forecast until then.