Vaccination Rates Must Improve To Control Delta Surge In WA: DOH

OLYMPIA, WA — The Washington State Department of Health released its latest COVID-19 situation report Tuesday, confirming an increase in cases in hospitalizations across the state as the more infectious delta variant became dominant in Washington and the nation. The report, assembled with help from the Institute of Disease Modeling, found increasing transmission rates starting in the first week in July while the pace of vaccination "slowed considerably."

Though some counties have relatively high immunization rates, other parts of the state continue to lag, and the report found an uptick in cases virtually across the board.

"I'm deeply concerned about areas of the state with lower vaccination rates now that a more infectious variant is likely to be the one that reaches those communities," said Dr. Scott Lindquist, the acting state health officer. "If you've been waiting to get vaccinated for any reason, now is the time to protect yourself, your family and everyone around you. With transmission increasing and immunity levels dangerous low in many communities, every vaccine matters."

By the end of the first week of July, the report found especially high case rates in Franklin, Benton and Walla Walla counties. Increases also began to emerge in Washington's five largest counties, including King County where community transmission recently returned to the "substantial" range, and Snohomish County where transmission has reached the "high" threshold.

Here are a few highlights from the report, identified by the Department of Health:

• Statewide case counts and hospital admissions flattened starting in mid-June, and case counts began increasing over the first week of July. Multiple counties were experiencing an uptick in case counts as of July 8, and additional counties appear to be seeing increases in more recent incomplete data.
• As of July 8, case rates flattened in age groups that were previously seeing declines, and rates were increasing in people ages 20-39. Hospital admission rates began to flatten across all age groups in the last week of June. As of July 8, admission rates were increasing in people ages 40-49 and 70-79 and may have been starting to increase in ages 20-39 and 60-69. More recent daily reports from hospitals showed admissions increasing in all adult age groups over the week ending July 18.
• Around the end of June, estimates of statewide transmission increased sharply. The best estimate of the reproductive number (which tells us how many new people each COVID-19 case will infect) on July 2 was 1.46. The high degree of uncertainty in the estimate make it difficult to know for sure how big of an increase we may be seeing, but a reproductive number above one means the virus is spreading faster. To see cases decline, the reproductive number needs to stay well below one for a substantial amount of time.
• The delta variant, a more transmissible strain of the virus, is now the dominant strain in circulation. The latest genetic sequencing data show delta variant cases made up almost 58% of sequences with specimens collected between June 20 and July 3. Model-based projections estimate that on July 19 92% of cases may be attributable to the delta variant.
• While overall population immunity continues to increase, the pace has slowed considerably and more vaccination is needed to keep cases from spiking higher. On July 8, the best model-based estimate of statewide population immunity (including from vaccination and from prior infection) was 51.9%. However, it is important to keep in mind that immunity levels vary widely across counties, communities and social groups.
• Despite increasing transmission and a bigger presence from the delta variant, vaccination is still working to protect people from severe COVID-19 illness. As of July 4, estimated hospital admission rates among unvaccinated people ages 45-64 were about 20 times higher than rates among people of the same age who were fully protected by vaccination. For ages 65 and older, the estimated admission rate for unvaccinated people was about nine times higher than for those who were fully protected.

The state's report was released on the same day the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention adjusted its guidance to recommend people resume indoor masking in regions with substantial or high transmission rates, regardless of vaccination status.

On Monday, several of Washington's top health officials signed a joint letter with a similar recommendation.

They wrote in part:

"We recommend all residents wear facial coverings when in indoor public settings where the vaccination status of those around you is unknown. This step will help reduce the risk of COVID-19 to the public, including customers and workers, help stem the increase in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations in many parts of the state and decrease the spread of the highly contagious delta variant."

Last week, King County's health officer made the case for keeping up several "layers of protection," including indoor masking, improved ventilation and vaccination, to limit the risks for all.

Read the full situation report on the Department of Health's website.