WA Vaccine Forecast Lower, With Fewer J&J Doses In April

OLYMPIA, WA — Washington's vaccine forecast is a little less sunny this week, after a notable drop in expected deliveries of the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine through April.

State health leaders have been preparing for a significant increase in federal allotments this month, bolstering the supply of doses as eligibility expands to all people 16 and older on April 15. The latest three-week forecast shows Pfizer and Moderna doses keeping a relatively steady pace as the supply of Johnson & Johnson drops off around April 18.

Here's how many doses Washington is expecting through April:

• Week of April 11: 386,810 total doses (191,560 first doses, 195,250 second doses)
  • This includes 225,810 doses of Pfizer, 148,100 doses of Moderna, and 12,900 doses of Johnson & Johnson.
• Week of April 18: 355,980 total doses (182,960 first doses, 173,020 second doses)
  • This includes 203,580 doses of Pfizer, 148,100 doses of Moderna, and 4,300 doses of Johnson & Johnson
• Week of April 25: 356,940 total doses (180,620 first doses, 176,320 second doses)
  
  • The includes 201,240 doses of Pfizer, 151,400 doses of Moderna, and 4,300 doses of Johnson & Johnson.

State health officials pointed to a recent mishap at a Johnson & Johnson plant, which put a temporary strain on shipments. On the bright side, the interruption is not expected to have long-term supply chain effects.

"Last week, nearly 15 million doses of Johnson & Johnson vaccine were ruined at a manufacturing plant in Baltimore," officials said Thursday. "Despite the loss, our federal partners have told us this should not have a major impact on vaccine allocations. Johnson & Johnson said it is still on track to meet its target of producing 100 million doses of vaccine for the United States by the end of May."

The federal government updates each state's three-week delivery estimates on Tuesdays and often adds more doses closer to the shipment date. The state-level forecasts also do not include separate allocations sent directly to the federal pharmacy program.

Even at current supply levels, Washington is gaining ground in its immunization efforts, this week reaching the 20 percent mark for fully vaccinated people and surpassing 31 percent of the population that has received at least one dose. The state is quickly approaching 4 million doses administered since efforts began last December. Washington is also averaging nearly 60,000 doses given each day, comfortably above the state's 45,000 dose goal.

On March 31, another 2 million Washingtonians became eligible, and the remaining 1.2 million join the ranks on Thursday, April 15. In some areas, like Seattle, residents who become eligible next week can schedule their future appointments.

Despite the broad success in vaccinating Washington's oldest and most vulnerable adults, state health officials estimate 300,000 seniors are still in need of a first dose. As eligibility expands further this month and supply continues to outpace demand, delays for new appointments may persist for another few weeks.

On Wednesday, Dr. Umair Shah, the state Secretary of Health, encouraged everyone eligible for vaccines to seek out an appointment.

"We have three vaccines that work, we have three vaccines that are effective, we have three vaccines that are safe," Shah said. "We want to make sure that we are doing everything we can to fight any misinformation and provide the right information, so people are getting vaccinated."

For younger residents, the Pfizer vaccine is the only option currently approved for use in 16 and 17-year-olds. The company also released a new study that showed its vaccine 100 percent effective in adolescents, ages 12 to 15. Moderna and Johnson & Johnson also have vaccine trials underway for kids in the same age range.

The state is working to add the available vaccine type at each provider on Washington's official Vaccine Locator tool.