WA's 4th Wave Shows Early Signs Of Plateau, But Rates Still High

SEATTLE — Washington may be starting to turn the corner in its fourth wave of coronavirus infections, but the metrics would have to improve in a matter of days to prevent more counties from rolling back.

The Washington State Department of Health hosted its weekly coronavirus briefing Wednesday, discussing the state's outlook and evolving efforts to vaccinate more people. On the positive end, Dr. Scott Lindquist, the acting state health officer, said early data showed a flattening out in new infection rates across much of the state.

"This whole fourth wave business looks to be — and this is a bit premature — but it looks like it's starting to plateau a little bit," Lindquist said. "The data isn't complete, but that gives me hope that a lot of these counties can turn this data around in the next week."

State leaders are scheduled to evaluate the reopening status of all 39 counties on Monday, May 3, and announce the outcome on Tuesday. Counties must meet at least one of two metrics to remain in Phase 3. During the last evaluation, three counties moved back to Phase 2: Pierce, Cowlitz and Whitman.

"Transmission is still increasing, and we're seeing the majority of our counties are seeing rising case counts," said Dr. Umair Shah, state Secretary of Health. "The sharpest increases...are those in the younger population, youth and young adults. Hospital admission rates are increasing across all age groups as well."

A key driver of the new infections continues to be more transmissible and severe strains, including the B.1.1.7 variant, which is now estimated to be connected with 60 to 75 percent of new cases across the state, Shah said.

State reviews reopening phases next Monday, with results announced Tuesday

Recent metrics show Pierce County all but certain to remain in Phase 2 next week, and King County is among those likely to join them if case counts and hospitalization rates fail to change significantly in the coming days.

As the Seattle Times reported, King County's public health director this week told the county council to prepare for a likely rollback.

Though many counties in the state are struggling to meet Phase 3 requirements, state health officials said Wednesday that there were no plans to take action statewide, and they would continue to evaluate each county on their own merits.

"It's really again looking at this from a county-to-county perspective," Shah said. "There is a significant variation across the counties. Certainly, we don't want to be premature about what's going to happen on Monday, but again the concern is that we are seeing increasing transmission in communities across Washington, but not everywhere."

While the state previously announced rollbacks on Mondays, officials said they would take an extra day next week, allowing them to analyze the most up-to-date data available, including any potential changes from the weekend.

Even with the metrics well above the thresholds in some counties currently, officials reiterated there is still time to make a difference by Monday.

"There is so much variability across the state, we're trying to respect that," Lindquist said. "There are counties that appear to be above the line, [but] they do have time to turn it around. We'll just have to wait and see."

Wednesday's briefing also included several updates on Washington's vaccination progress, along with some new areas of concern.

13% of Washingtonians with 1 dose are overdue for 2nd

This week, Washington officially surpassed 5 million doses administered to date. According to the state, more than 40 percent of the state's eligible population has received at least one dose, and close to 30 percent are fully vaccinated.

An emerging point of concern, officials said, is a subset of people who received their first dose of Pfizer or Moderna but have yet to return for the second dose a few weeks later.

• If you received the Pfizer vaccine, you should get your second shot three weeks (or 21 days) after your first.
• If you received the Moderna vaccine, you should get your second shot four weeks (or 28 days) after your first.

"After you get your first dose, don't forget to get your second shot, too," said Michele Roberts, the state's lead vaccine planner. "Across Washington, about 13 percent of people who received one dose are overdue for their second dose by more than a week."

In most cases, people are encouraged to schedule their second dose with their initial provider. Those who are having difficulty doing so have a few options for alternatives. For King County workers and residents, Seattle's four city-run sites now offer second-dose-only appointments to all. Other health care providers, like UW Medicine, also have options available to provide second doses for those who received their first shot elsewhere. Patients will need to make sure both doses are from the same manufacturer — Pfizer and Moderna are not interchangeable.

Officials said ensuring the full course of immunization is essential to maximize protection and significantly reduce the chance of infection, transmission and hospitalization. A new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study found Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were 94 percent effective in preventing hospitalizations in people 65 and older within two weeks of the second dose.

On the supply front, Washington is expecting nearly 400,000 doses during the first week of May, and a relatively steady supply over the next three weeks.

• Week of May 2: 394,060 total doses (208,380 first doses, 185,680 second doses)
  • This includes 219,960 doses of Pfizer, 157,400 doses of Moderna, and 16,700 doses of Johnson & Johnson.
• Week of May 9: 387,660 total doses (195,980 first doses, 191,680 second doses)
  • This includes 219,960 doses of Pfizer, 163,400 doses of Moderna, and 4,300 doses of Johnson & Johnson.
• Week of May 16: 387,660 total doses (195,980 first doses, 191,680 second doses)
• This includes 219,960 doses of Pfizer, 163,400 doses of Moderna, and 4,300 doses of Johnson & Johnson.

There are several methods to secure an appointment, including the state's Vaccine Locator tool and various local pharmacies. Thousands of appointments remain available in Seattle, and Pierce County offers a slew of drive-thru and walk-up events, including at the Tacoma Dome.