Marquette Poll Shows WI Voter Divides

By Melanie Conklin, the Wisconsin Examiner

Aug. 12, 2021

The new Marquette poll shows long-standing divides persist among voters over politics, policy in Wisconsin.

One of the most closely watched portions of the Marquette Law School Poll for political observers is which politicians are above and underwater in their favorability ratings.

Pollster Charles Franklin released the first poll of 2021 on Wednesday with new information on Wisconsin registered voters’ impression of not only the politicians, but the issues — from handling of COVID-19 to critical race theory to education to election confidence.

President Joe Biden is at 49% approval (46% unfavorable).

Former President Donald Trump is at 37% approval (55% unfavorable).

Gov. Tony Evers beats them both with a 50% favorable rating (43% unfavorable) as he heads into a re-election campaign for the fall 2022 election. That response has not changed since Oct. 2020. He gets even higher marks (54% approval) for how he’s handled the pandemic and that’s improved over time.

Trump’s rating has dropped from the last poll in October 2020, when 44% viewed him favorably.
And then there is the Wisconsin Legislature, which is well below Evers and Biden in how it is handling its job: close to even with Trump in approval (38%), but with fewer voters polled disapproving (48%).

And in a ranking that may be the influence of divided government with a Democratic governor and a Republican Legislature that are at odds with each other, the poll summary states:

“A majority of respondents, 51%, say things in Wisconsin are on the wrong track, while 38% say things are headed in the right direction. When this was last asked, in late March 2020, 61% said things were headed in the right direction and 30% said they were on the wrong track.”

Asked if Wisconsin government is functioning as intended, only 32% said yes and 60% said it is broken. But — take heart Wisconsinites — that’s well above D.C., where 84% say it’s broken. “”That is a very depressing number,” said Franklin.

Discouraging News For Johnson

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) is another closely watched figure for the fact that his seat is up for election in 2022 and he has not said whether he will run again or not. In the past he had vowed not to, but he has wavered in recent months. There is a packed Democratic field of high profile candidates, while Republicans opted not to get into the race and fundraise until he makes his decision.

Johnson is one of Trump’s most outspoken political allies and has continued his false attacks on the 2020 presidential election and misinformation about the coronavirus and the vaccine. His approval rating is lower than Biden, Evers or Trump, with 35% of those surveyed viewing him favorably, (42% unfavorable). Another 23% have no opinion — several times more than the number who had no opinion of the other three. Johnson is up from his lowest point, when only 27% viewed him favorably in a 2015 poll, but the results show a slight decline among Republicans from October 2020.

Democratic Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin, whose current term does not end until 2025, is viewed favorably by 40% and unfavorably by 39%, while 21% do not have an opinion. Those numbers have dropped in both categories from October 2020,when 19% offered no opinion.

On Policy And Issues

Franklin and the Marquette poll have become the frequently cited measurement of public opinion on issues in Wisconsin, and the poll has a high A/B grade of accuracy from Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com.

For details on the wording of the questions, view the full poll with detailed analysis and breakdowns of the results. Here are some keys from the August poll you are likely to hear cited in political circles and legislative debates on issues:

• Police: 80% favorable, 13% unfavorable
• Black Lives Matter Movement: : 46% favorable, 40% unfavorable
• Infrastructure spending: 53% favorable, 37% unfavorable
• Increasing the minimum wage to $15 an hour: 51% support, 44% oppose
• Satisfaction with your public schools: 69% yes, 22% no
• Public school teachers: 72% favorable, 14% unfavorable
• Major increase in funding for special education: 72% yes, 19% no
• Expanding private school vouchers: 46% yes, 44% no
• Teaching critical race theory: 26% yes, 30% no (43% don’t know enough)
• Requiring a photo ID to vote: 73% yes, 22% no. (Large increase since 2014)

Other findings that vary by political party identification include trust in the election, with 75% of Republicans saying they are not confident and 94% of Democrats expressing confidence.

The Aug. 3-8 poll interviewed 807 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone. The full sample has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points, while the half-samples have a 5.4-percentage-point margin of error.

The Wisconsin Examiner, a nonpartisan, nonprofit news site, offers a fresh perspective on state politics and policy through investigative reporting and daily coverage dedicated to the public interest. The Examiner is part of States Newsroom, a national 501(c)(3) nonprofit supported by grants and a coalition of donors and readers.