Crime, Homelessness Tank Newsom's Poll Numbers: UC Berkeley Poll

BERKELEY, CA – If a newly released UC Berkeley poll is any indication, California Gov. Gavin Newsom could face strong headwinds in his reelection bid later this year.

According to the latest UC Berkley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, Newsom’s job approval rating fell to 48 percent among registered California voters, a 16-point drop since September, when he survived a recall bid. Newsom's disapproval rating was 47 percent, according to the poll.

Newsom's particularly low marks for his handling of crime and homelessness appear to have driven the precipitous fall in his poll numbers.

Roughly two thirds of registered voters (66 percent) rated Newsom’s handling of homelessness as “poor” or “very poor,” and more than half (51 percent) of voters disapproved of Newsom’s handling of crime and public safety.

Newsom got high marks for his handling of the pandemic, with 66 percent of voters saying they felt the situation seems to be improving compared to 27 percent who believe it’s getting worse.But the seemingly intractable issues of homelessness and crime weighed more heavily his overall approval rating, likely reflecting the view among most that the pandemic is starting to peter out.

Nearly two thirds of voters support reversing a 2014 voter-approved ballot measure that reduced penalties for some property crimes such as shoplifting of items valued at no more than $950, from potential felonies to misdemeanors.

“These results suggest that some of the same dissatisfaction that's hurting Democrats nationally is affecting Governor Newsom’s popularity in the state,” IGS co-director Eric Schickler said.

A Newsom reelection campaign spokesman told The Los Angeles Times the governor has “decisively guided California through historic and unprecedented crises” of the pandemic while taking on problems that have vexed the state for decades.

“His actions saved lives and provided real help to families as they faced uncertainty,” Nathan Click told The Times.

“He remains 100% focused on providing solutions to California’s most vexing challenges — from the pandemic and climate change to homelessness and public safety.”

The Feb. 3-10 poll was administered online to 8,937 California registered voters in English and Spanish. In order to cover a broad range of issues, some of the questions reported by the poll administrators were based on a random subsample of 4,460 registered voters.

Newsom is unlikely to encounter a credible primary challenge and figures to enjoy significant structural advantages in a bright-blue state.

He’ll also have history on his side.

No incumbent California governor has lost a non-recall election since 1930 (Republican James Rolph unseated incumbent Democrat Milton Young that year).

This isn’t the first time Newsom has experienced bad poll numbers ahead of an election.

Newsom experienced a scare last summer when polls showed a tight race in the weeks leading up to the Sept. 14 recall, but the 54-year-old won resoundingly.

Yet storm clouds loom.

Republicans are expected to enjoy an advantage nationally in a midterm election in which the out-of-power party typically makes substantial gains.

Newsom has been floated as a 2024 presidential candidate should Joe Biden not seek another term, SFGate reports.