CA Recall: New Poll Shows Newsom Could Lose His Post

CALIFORNIA — While polls leading up to the summer showed that Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom was still on track to hold onto his post, a recent poll suggested that his favoritism among voters could be slipping.

An Aug. 4 survey from USA and the San Diego Union Tribune found that 51 percent of its 1,100 respondents would vote to recall Newsom and just 40 percent would keep him in office.

Those figures are a dramatic shift from Survey USA's May poll, which found that just 36 percent of respondents would push Newsom from his seat while 47 percent opposed the recall.

The poll comes as coronavirus cases are climbing again in California, with the state's most populous counties reinstating mask mandates, circumstances that could bring his approval rating down.

Newsom has ramped up his campaign in recent weeks but the election has already been characterized by sparse Democratic interest, while Republicans remain energentic to oust him from office.

The GOP has also seen infighting amongst Republican candidates as the party moves closer to the election with no clear front-runner. On Saturday, the California Republican Party was slated to decide on an endorsement between four high-profile candidates, but just hours before, delegates voted overwhelmingly to not endorse a candidate.

"The polls are showing that the recall is in a statistical tie and we cannot afford to discourage voters who are passionate about a particular candidate, yet may not vote because their favored candidate didn't receive the endorsement," they wrote in a Friday email obtained by the Associated Press.

The survey asked participants which candidates they would vote for to replace Newsom, revealing that Republican Larry Elder, a talk radio host and Democrat Kevin Paffrath, a YouTuber, were the most popular among respondents.

Paffrath, the most prominent Democrat on the ballot, received 27 percent of the vote while Elder, who has been leading other recent polls, snagged 23 percent of the vote.

Businessman John Cox came in fourth (10 percent), former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer came in third (5 percent) and former Olympic athlete Caitlyn Jenner came in fifth, although she is arguably Newsom's most famous competitor. Rep. Doug Ose tied with Jenner at 4 percent.

California Republicans decided to skip endorsing any one candidate over the weekend, deciding that the move could steer attention away from one unifying goal: recalling the Democratic governor.

On Sept. 14, Republicans and opponents of Newsom will only need half of voters to cast a ballot to recall him to get him out of office. The replacement candidate with the largest share of votes will win the governor's seat.

"Any of our GOP candidates would be superior to Gavin Newsom," Harmeet Dhillon and Shawn Steel, two prominent California GOP delegates, wrote in an email to the state party Friday. "We believe that the voters should decide his replacement, which will not only ensure a higher turnout of recall proponents but give Newsom's successor the best chance of reelection in 2022."

Another poll conducted on July 27 showed that 47 percent of respondents supported the recall of Newsom, while 50 percent would vote to keep him in office, according to the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey.

One of the main findings of that poll was that voting turnout among Republicans was predicted to be much higher than Democrats and No Party voters. The survey also identified Elder as the leading candidate in the race.

Newsom has pushed back against the effort to unseat him, painting the campaign as one backed by extremists, supporters of former President Donald Trump and those against the coronavirus vaccines.

"This is — and forgive me — a Republican-backed recall where the principal proponent of the recall effort wants to microchip immigrants," Newsom has said. "These folks don't believe in science let alone climate science, and they don't believe in the science behind this pandemic. There's a lot at stake for Californians in this race."

SEE ALSO: Recall Leaders Sue To Block Newsom From Calling Election GOP-Led

Recall supporters have argued that Newsom's response to the pandemic was disastrous for businesses and that his leadership revealed serious fissures within the state's crime rates, homelessness and unemployment agency after an audit found widespread fraud.

Ballots for the Sept. 14 election will start arriving in mailboxes around the Golden State later this month

What's A Recall?

California has had recall elections as part of its political system since 1911. The process allows the public to attempt to remove an elected public official from office before the end of his or her term. Before a recall election can be initiated, a certain number of voters must sign a recall petition within a specified amount of time.

The state has had 54 previous attempts to recall California governors. Only one governor was recalled in California's history: Gray Davis in 2003.

READ MORE:

• Newsom Recall Election Date Set
• California Republicans Skip Recall Candidate Endorsement
• CA Recall: Newsom, Elder To Skip First Election Debate
• CA Recall Election: Who Is Running?
• Newsom Recall Election Officially Happening: What To Know
• A Serious Man: Can Kevin Faulconer Run For Governor Without The Gimmicks?
• CA Democrats Propose $215M To Expedite Newsom Recall Election
• Follow The Money: Gavin Newsom Recall Edition
• Total Recall: An Illustrated Guide To The Newsom Recall

The Associated Press contributed to this report.