Novato Residents Face Off-The-Charts Fire Risk, New Study Says

NOVATO, CA — A new study shows what anyone who lives in Novato already knows.

According to data compiled by the online tool Risk Factor 99 percent of the North Bay city’s 18,688 properties have “some risk of being affected by wildfire over the next 30 years.”

Some 80 million U.S. properties are at risk for wildfire damage according to the modeling developed by Risk Factor.

Risk Factor was created by the nonprofit First Street Foundation.

The tool aims that help assess environmental threats such as flooding and wildfires and understand how these risks are associated with climate change.

About 16 percent of the nation’s population lives in areas prone to wildfire damage, according to The Washington Post’s analysis of the group’s data.

California was identified as one of the states with the highest wildfire risk.

Extreme drought conditions and rising temperatures contribute to longer and more destructive wildfire seasons in the Golden State. This year, 1,734 wildfires have already scorched 7,464 acres, according to Cal Fire.

January’s extended dry spell was expected to continue into the spring with little precipitation, leaving most of the state in moderate to extreme drought conditions before summer. Dry conditions with above-normal temperatures through spring will leave fuel moisture levels lower than normal, increasing the potential for wildland fires, according to CalFire.

The 2022 fire season officially kicked into high gear when a wildfire in Orange County tore through some 20 homes and hundreds of acres last week. But experts said that fire season is more likely a year-round event nowadays.

“Summer in California no longer means the beginning of fire season. Rather, it means we are about to enter the roughest six or so months of a fire season that never ends,” said Bill Deverell, director of the Huntington-USC Institute on California and the West and head of The West on Fire research project, according to USC News.

“Drought and the increasing effects of climate change come together in creating the likelihood — even the certainty — of bigger, hotter and more catastrophic fires year to year,” he said.

A significant lack of rain in recent months will likely set the stage for a dangerous fire season, meteorologists at AccuWeather predicted earlier this month.

"Unfortunately, in a nutshell, it looks like it’s going to be another busy season," he said. "We’re seeing a lot of drought. Almost half of the country is experiencing drought and the bulk of that is to the west," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel said, adding that AccuWeather forecasters "are expecting an above-average fire season."

Samuhel said he expects the 2022 season to burn 9.5 million acres of land across the western U.S. — 130 percent of the five-year average and 140 percent of the 10-year average.