Study: No Increase in Crimes from Prison Realignment

Measures implemented to reduce overcrowding at state prisons, such as inmate realignment, have not led to an increase in crime, while programs to rehabilitate inmates have led to a noticeable drop in recidivism, according to a series of studies overseen by two UC Irvine professors and published Friday.

UC Irvine professors Charis Kubrin and Carroll Seron acted as guest editors for the current issue of The Annals of the American Academy of Political & Social Science, which was published Friday. The journal features multiple articles on the history of the Public Safety Realignment Act -- better known as AB 109 -- and its impact on the state.

“This is the first systematic, scientific analysis of realignment,” Kubrin told City News Service.

There have been other smaller studies “here and there,” Kubrin said, but they analyzed one county or a city or some aspect of the law.

AB 109 most notably redirected non-violent offenders to county jails and put them under the supervision of county probation officers instead of sending them to state prison.

The two most significant points of the analysis of the data is that the state did not see a big bump in crime, other than a slight uptick in property crimes such as auto thefts, and that investing in rehabilitation appears to pay dividends in crime fighting, the professors said.

“At this point the crime (rate) story actually looks clearer than the recidivism story, partially because of what realignment did was give greater authority to the counties” in how they deal with the effects of prison population reduction, Seron said.

Counties were given money to either put more beds in their jails for inmates to serve time locally or to invest in rehabilitation programs. Counties that spent more money on housing inmates generally ended up with more repeat offenders, the professors said.

“Basically, the overall findings show the counties that took a reentry approach like San Francisco show lower rates of recidivism than the counties that took a jail approach like L.A.,” Seron said.

Many law enforcement officials have complained that measures like AB 109 and Prop. 47, which reduced some felonies to misdemeanors, have contributed to a rise in crime. The union representing Orange County sheriff’s deputies complained in a lawsuit against the county filed last week that realignment has made the county’s jails more dangerous.

But the professors pointed out that AB 109 did not allow for the early release of violent or sex offenders.

“What you don’t see in the news is a look at a realignment offender who went through a rehabilitation program and is now contributing to society,” Kubrin said. “What we don’t have is the equivalent success stories.”

Instead, there are more anecdotal accounts such as the case against Jimmy Hoang Truong, who had two felony drug possession convictions reduced to misdemeanors under Prop. 47 and after he was released he ran afoul of the law multiple times, culminating in a police chase with Santa Ana officers in which he allegedly shot at his pursuers, according to prosecutors.

In a District Attorney’s Office news release announcing Truong’s indictment Thursday, Santa Ana Police Chief Carlos Rojas said, “It is concerning that while he is facing numerous felony charges, his possession of the stolen handgun that he used to shoot at our officers is likely a misdemeanor, in accordance with Proposition 47, due to its value being under $950.”

Kubrin said the jury is still out on Prop. 47 because there hasn’t been enough data to analyze.

Orange County is slightly above the average in recidivism rates since realignment.

“Orange County is not at the top, but it is above the middle for recidivism,” Kubrin said. “They’re not the worst, but they could be doing better.”

Another key point of the studies showed that the cost of incarceration is much higher than the expense related to the slight uptick in property crimes, the professors said.

“There’s an increase of 1.2 auto thefts as a consequence of realignment per year and that results in under $12,000 loss to that victim on average, but it costs about $51,000 a year to incarcerate someone. So in terms of public safety we have to make some hard choices,” Seron said. “Are we using our limited resources wisely? It’s not an easy question and the victim of the (car theft) crime might have perhaps a different opinion, but there is a collective dimension to it as well.”

--City News Service, photo via Shutterstock