2022 Fall Forecast Predicts Above-Average Temps In Florida

FLORIDA — As much of the country swelters through the dog days of summer, it’s hard to fathom that meteorological autumn is less than a month away. But forecasters have already released their predictions for when Florida residents can expect weather perfect for hoodies and pumpkin spice everything.

Meteorological autumn kicked off Sept. 1 and continues through Nov. 30. While autumn doesn’t officially start until the Sept. 22 equinox, forecasters use consistent dates each year to easily compare one season to another.

AccuWeather recently released its 2022 fall forecast. Is Florida in for a break from the heat and humidity? Not exactly. Warmth will dominate the forecast.

The Old Farmer's Almanac echoes Accuweather's forecast. It also predicts that September and October in Florida will be slightly warmer and much drier than normal, with the hottest period in early September.

• Related: Tropical Storm Danielle Expected To Become Season's 1st Hurricane

Along with periods of warmth, Florida's abnormally warm water will be a big factor in the severe weather threat across the state and eastern half of the U.S. this autumn, according to Accuweather.

Some beaches in Florida have reported water temperatures just shy of 90 degrees Fahrenheit, including Clearwater Beach just outside of Tampa. This could potentially help tropical systems in the Gulf gain strength as they approach land. Water temperatures typically need to be 80 to 82 degrees Fahrenheit to fuel a hurricane.

To determine its fall forecast, AccuWeather forecasters used data from computer models while also analyzing weather patterns around the globe and past years.

After combining these factors, the AccuWeather team condensed its seasonal outlook into one word: warm.

“With pretty good confidence this year, I think it's a mild fall setting up overall for the U.S.,” AccuWeather forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

Here’s what other parts of the country could expect:

• In September, millions of residents in the Northeast and Midwest won’t feel much of a change when it comes to temperature. Expect the first frost of the season to arrive one or two weeks earlier than normal across the Upper Midwest and upstate New York.

• For the third consecutive year, La Niña will supercharge the Atlantic hurricane season, which will lead to a higher threat of tropical systems making landfall this autumn.

• Drought conditions are expected to ease across the Northeast, Midwest and Southeast. However, abnormally dry conditions will remain throughout most of the central United States in places like Texas, eastern New Mexico and western Kansas.

• Widespread and long-term drought is expected to fuel another active wildfire season in the West. The worst of the fires are expected to develop in areas different than 2021.