Atlantic Hurricane Predictions Get Worse, 12-17 Named Storms Expected

TAMPA BAY, FL — With the exception of some rain and flooding, the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been fairly uneventful for Florida and the Tampa Bay area so far. Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, however, warn the season is far from over. In fact, they’ve revised their predictions for the season, saying there’s a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms forming.

NOAA’s updated predictions were released Thursday. The forecast for the season, which doesn’t end until Nov. 30, now includes the potential for two to four major hurricanes.

The season so far has given rise to five named storms, most recently Hurricane Earl. The only storm so far to have a major impact on the Tampa Bay area was Tropical Storm Colin. The rainmaker formed in June, leaving flooding in its wake.

NOAA said there is a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season, decreasing the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.

The initial outlook called for 10 to 16 named storms, four to eight hurricanes, and one to four major hurricanes. The seasonal averages are 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season produced 19 total storms and 10 hurricanes. Sandy produced 115 mph winds and tore up much of the shoreline, particularly in New Jersey.

“We’ve raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon,” Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a release.

However, less conducive ocean temperature patterns in both the Atlantic and eastern subtropical North Pacific, combined with stronger wind shear and sinking motion in the atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea, are expected to prevent the season from becoming extremely active, he said.

As the 2016 season nears its peak, forecasters at NOAA urge residents in coastal areas to be prepared. Tampa Bay hasn’t been struck by a hurricane in more than 90 years. Experts say the region's lucky streak isn’t likely to last. It’s not a question of if, but when, forecasters say.

To find out more about hurricane season and storm preparation, read these related Patch stories:

• Hurricane Season 2016: Where To Find Local Information
• 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Released
• Hurricane Season: How to Prepare
• 2016 Hurricane Names: Is Yours On the List?
• Tampa Bay 'Ripe for Disaster,' Hurricane Experts Say

To keep up with storm activity as the season develops, bookmark the National Hurricane Center’s website and keep an eye on your hometown Patch site for local information.

Graphics courtesy of the National Hurricane Center/NOAA

Patch editor Tom Davis contributed to this story