2 Areas Eyed For Tropical Development In Gulf, Atlantic: NHC

FLORIDA — On the heels of a storm system that brought historic rainfall to much of South Florida last week, forecasters are tracking two areas for potential tropical development this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

One storm is likely to affect Florida, while the other should focus on Mexico and Central America, the NHC said.

The area of low pressure forming in the western Gulf of Mexico over the Bay of Campeche has a 70 percent chance of developing into a tropical disturbance later this week but will not affexxct Florida, the agency said.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional gradual development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast,” according to NHC.

This system could become the first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. If it does, it would be named Alberto.

Meanwhile, a new tropical wave has formed in the Atlantic, creating “an area of cloudiness and thunderstorms several hundred miles east of the Bahamas,” NHC said.

As it moves toward Florida’s East Coast, it has a 10 percent chance of developing over the next two days and a 30 percent chance of developing through the next seven days.

“Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of this system during the
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward,” the agency said.

It should approach the southeastern United States on Thursday or Friday.

If this area does develop into a tropical storm, that would be “extremely rare” for this time of year, Noah Bergrem, Fox 35 Storm Team meteorologist, said.

"Historically, only three storms have made landfall from the east in June," he added. "The most recent was Tropical Storm Danny in 2021, which hit South Carolina."

Whether the band of weather develops further or not, it likely will affect northern areas of Florida along the East Coast, Adam Berg, meteorologist with NBC6, said.

Here’s the National Weather Service forecast for the Tampa Bay area this week:

• Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 99. East wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.
• Monday night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. East wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
• Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 99. East wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Tuesday night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. East wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 94. East wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Wednesday night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8 p.m. Mostly clear, with a low around 77. East northeast wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. East wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent..
• Thursday night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. East northeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 96. East southeast wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.
• Friday night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 40 percent.

Here’s the NWS forecast for the Miami area this week:

• Monday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
• Monday night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a slight chance of showers between midnight and 5am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 80. East wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent.
• Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8 a.m., then a chance of showers between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11 a.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Tuesday night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 79. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
• Wednesday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Breezy, with an east wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
• Wednesday night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. East wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
• Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. East wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Thursday night: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 79. East wind around 10 mph.
• Friday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. East wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Friday night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2 a.m., then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 79. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.