Above-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season 2022 Still Likely: NOAA

FLORIDA — Despite the tropics being relatively quiet through the start of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, Floridians should make sure they are stocked up with all the supplies they need.

Although forecasters at the National Oceanic Atmosphere Administration and Colorado State University have slightly reduced their forecasts for the 2022 season, both agencies are still predicting an above-average number of storms this year.

The NOAA experts lowered the likelihood of an above-normal season from 65 percent in May to 60 percent as of Thursday, according to a news release from the agency. The chance of a season with near-normal activity increase to 30 percent and the likelihood of a below-normal season is about 10 percent.

So far, this season, which kicked off June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, has see three named tropical storms — Alex, Bonnie and Colin.

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Alex developed at the end of May out of the remnants of the Pacific storm Hurricane Agatha, and moved across the Gulf of Mexico, bringing heavy rains to South Florida before heading into the Atlantic. Bonnie formed off the northwest coast of Africa and moved across the Atlantic, eventually affecting parts of South and Central Americas. Colin formed July 1 off the coast of Savannah, Georgia, bringing stormy weather to coastal South Carolina.

Other than that, June and July were mostly quiet. The reason? Saharan dust traveling across the Atlantic, according to Fox Weather. The dry, dusty air, which makes its way across the ocean each year, is known for suppressing the formation of hurricanes.

The waters won’t stay quiet for long, CSU said in a news release. With La Niña causing slightly warmer-than-normal waters in the Atlantic and Caribbean, forecasters at the university said this will fuel the development of storms. At the same time, sea surface temperatures are just slightly above normal, which should be a neutral factor in how the remainder of the season developers, they added.

Other atmospheric and oceanic conditions increasing the likelihood of storm development for the remainder of the hurricane season include weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an active west African Monsoon, NOAA said.

NOAA’s new 2022 Atlantic hurricane season update calls for 14 to 20 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of these, six to 10 could become hurricanes with winds 74 mph or greater, while three to five could become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater.

“We’re just getting into the peak months of August through October for hurricane development, and we anticipate that more storms are on the way,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., said.

Meanwhile, CSU’s Tropical Meteorology Project team predicts 18 named storms, including the three that have already formed.

Of these 18 predicted storms, CSU researchers expect eight to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength with winds of 111 mph or greater.

So far, the 2022 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1999, 2000, 2011 and 2021.

“1999 was an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season, 2011 and 2021 were above-average seasons, and 2000 was a near-average season,” Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist with CSU’s Department of Atmospheric Science, said.

The CSU team predicts that 2022 hurricane activity will be about 120 percent of the average season, similar to 2021, which saw two hurricanes make landfall in the continental U.S.

“Communities and families should prepare now for the remainder of what is still expected to be an active hurricane season,” Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, said.

He encourages families to create an evacuation plan and gather hurricane supplies now.

“Although it has been a relatively slow start to hurricane season, with no major storms developing in the Atlantic, this is not unusual and we therefore cannot afford to let our guard down,” FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell added. “This is especially important as we enter peak hurricane season — the next Ida or Sandy could still be lying in wait.”

She directs those preparing for hurricanes to download the FEMA app and visit Ready.gov or Listo.gov for preparedness tips.