Coronavirus Could Push SoFlo Hospitals Over Capacity: ProPublica

MIAMI, FL — With a steadily growing number of new coronavirus cases in Florida, a new study raises questions as to whether south Florida has enough hospital beds.

The warning about the potential for overwhelmed hospitals comes from an analysis by Harvard Global Health Institute and ProPublica.

One of the measures Florida officials have considered to address this problem was reopening shuttered hospital facilities around the state and setting up mobile hospitals.

“At the end of the day, you may need, obviously more beds for people who are critically ill, but you want to have a system in place so that run of the mill COVID-19 patients who do not require hospitalization are able to get diagnosed, tested and then be able to be in self-isolation without them clogging the hospital system," acknowledged Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Patch reached out to Jackson Health System, Broward Health Medical Center and the Florida Hospital Association for additional details. We will update this story as soon as we hear back from them.

From ProPublica:

As of 2018, Miami had 9,140 total hospital beds, of which about 68 percent were occupied, potentially leaving only 2,950 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 980 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory. Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most acute coronavirus cases.

In nearby Fort Lauderdale, there were 7,320 total hospital beds as of 2018, of which about 62 percent were occupied, potentially leaving only 2,750 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 910 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory.

The Miami region has a population of about 3.5 million residents; 15 percent are over the age of 65. The Fort Lauderdale region has a population of about 3 million residents; 21 percent are over the age of 65.

The experience in other countries has shown that elderly patients have significantly higher hospitalization and fatality rates from the coronavirus.

In a moderate scenario, in which 40 percent of the adult population contracts the disease over 12 months, Miami and Fort Lauderdale would be among the regions that would need to expand capacity.

It is estimated that about 8 percent of the adult population in Miami and 9 percent in Fort Lauderdale would require hospital care.

In a moderate scenario where 40 percent of the population is infected over a 12-month period, hospitals in Miami would receive an estimated 228,000 coronavirus patients. The influx of patients would require 7,610 beds over 12 months, which is 2.6 available beds in that time period.

Hospitals in Fort Lauderdale would receive an estimated 206,000 coronavirus patients in a moderate scenario. The influx of patients would require 6,860 beds over 12 months, which is 2.5 available beds in that time period.

The Harvard researchers' scenarios assume that each coronavirus patient will require 12 days of hospital care on average, based on data from China.

In the Miami region, intensive care units would be especially overwhelmed and require additional capacity. Without coronavirus patients, there are only 280 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 5.8 times less than what is needed to care for all severe cases.

Intensive care units would also be overwhelmed and require additional capacity in the Fort Lauderdale area. Without coronavirus patients, there are only 290 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 5.2 times less than what is needed to care for all severe cases.

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