Hurricane Rafael Could Grow To Major Category 3 Storm: FL Impact

FLORIDA — As Hurricane Rafael works its way across the Caribbean it’s expected to make landfall in Cuba late Wednesday afternoon as a Category 2 or possibly a major Category 3 storm, AccuWeather forecasters said.

The Florida Keys will feel the punch of the storm, but it's too early to know if Florida's Gulf Coast will also be affected, weather forecasters said.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Cuba, which should expect to see “damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge and destructive waves,” according to the National Hurricane Center.

A tropical storm warning is also in effect for the Florida Keys, Fox 13 reported.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle Keys Wednesday starting during the day and into the night, the NHC said.

“Bands of rain containing gusty winds will impact this area through Wednesday night. A few tornadoes cannot be ruled out in the Keys and far southwestern Florida, as well,” the Weather Channel said.

While Rafael could weaken once it enters the Gulf and hits cooler waters and more wind shear, it will still affect some areas along the U.S. Gulf Coast. But its exact track and intensity after Cuba are uncertain.

“The highest probability of any U.S. landfall is along the central Louisiana coast. However, since steering breezes may change a bit late this week and this weekend due to the approach of a non-tropical storm from the south-central U.S., there is a wide window as to where, or if, landfall will occur,” AccuWeather forecasters said.

A weaker storm will move west across the Gulf, rather than north, while a stronger hurricane would track east.

“In this case, impacts would be greater along the Florida Gulf coast, including from storm surge. This is the least likely scenario at this point,” according to AccuWeather. “In yet another scenario, Rafael may lose so much wind intensity that it arrives in the U.S. as a tropical depression or wind and rainstorm. Regardless, this will not be a situation where there is a strengthening major hurricane that makes landfall in the U.S., but rather something less intense in terms of wind intensity. Impacts from rainfall can still be experienced well inland.”

Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, said Rafael is likely to head west after Cuba.

“Track then turns it due west in the Gulf, away from Florida, with no real impacts on Tampa Bay if this track holds,” he wrote in a Wednesday morning Facebook post. “Over the weekend the storm will encounter strong shear and weaken to a minimal tropical storm or tropical depression.”

More storms could follow after Rafael, as the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season ends Nov. 30, USA Today reported.

Factors are "conducive for another storm or two," Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA Today. "In addition to the area that the National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring that could form north of the Leeward Islands, there could be additional potential in the Caribbean."

These factors include the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which currently favors storm formation and low wind shear forecast in the western Caribbean, reports said.