NOAA Predicts Strong 2020 Hurricane Season Amid Coronavirus

MIAMI, FL — Weather researchers believe there will be more hurricanes in 2020 than during an average hurricane season, on top of the coronavirus outbreak that first responders already have to worry about, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday.

"NOAA's outlook for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season indicates that an above-normal season is most likely, with a possibility of that season being extremely active," NOAA acting Administrator Neil Jacobs told reporters during a conference call.

Current and predicted oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicate a higher likelihood — a 60 percent chance — of an above-normal season. Forecasters believe there is only a 30 percent chance of a normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.

While Arthur already became the first named storm to form this year, the peak months of hurricane season run from August through October.

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On average, the Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

NOAA predicted with 70 percent certainty there will be 13 to 19 named storms with top winds of at least 39 mph. Of those, six to 10 are expected to become hurricanes with top winds of at least 74 mph, including three to six major hurricanes of Category 3 and higher with top winds of at least 111 mph, according to Jacobs.

In April, Colorado State University meteorologists predicted the 2020 hurricane season could bring 16 named storms — four more than the average.

Gerry Bell, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said 2020 would be the fifth consecutive above-normal season. But Bell cautioned that it's too early to say how the season will compare to the record 2005 season that brought 27 named storms.

"At this time, our ranges are well below what we saw in that record 2005 season," he said. "This is the time to start getting prepared. Don’t worry what some other seasons did. Make sure you know what to do this season."

Officials cautioned that the prediction does not distinguish between storms that make landfall and those that remain at sea.

The hurricane season outlook is based on the latest weather and climate models, as well as observed atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The Atlantic basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

The coronavirus outbreak is figuring prominently into this year's hurricane planning with the added need to maintain social distancing at emergency shelters and possibly even to provide testing for evacuees if necessary.

"We encourage people that don’t need to evacuate — if they can stay home and be safer there — then there will be enough room for those that have no place else to go and have to evacuate," said Carlos Castillo, acting deputy FEMA administrator for resilience.

In addition to Arthur, this year's list of Atlantic storm names includes Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred.

"The main uncertainty is not whether the season is going to be above normal," lead forecaster Bell acknowledged. "It's kind of how more active could it be if La Niña develops."

Weather experts define La Niña as a weather pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean in which strong winds blow warm water at the ocean’s surface from South America to Indonesia. As the warm water moves west, cold water from the deep rises to the surface near the coast of South America.

"If La Niña develops, the activity could certainly be near the upper end of our predicted ranges," Bell warned.

See also:

• Tropical Storm Arthur Becomes First Named Storm Of Season
• Strong Hurricane Season Could Hit Florida After Coronavirus Peak