New Forecast Predicts Up To 5 Major Hurricanes For 2025 Season

FLORIDA — Forecasters are predicting an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season once again with 13 to 19 named storms, Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, said during a Thursday morning news conference hosted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Six to 10 of these storms will strengthen into hurricanes and three to five of them are expected to become major hurricanes of a Category 3 or above, Graham said.

There’s a 60 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 30 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of a below-average season.

There are a number of factors influencing this year’s hurricane forecast, including warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear and African monsoons serving as “a conducive spot … to launch out the storms,” Graham said.

He added, “So, everything’s in place for an above-average season.”

NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”

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This hurricane season also features the potential for a northward shift of the West African monsoon, producing tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms.

“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” Graham said. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens."

He also lauded the organization’s ability to forecast this upcoming season’s storms despite a workforce reduction to NOAA under President Donald Trump’s administration.

More than 550 employees have left the National Weather Service since the start of the year and a proposed budget from the White House calls for a nearly 30 percent job cut at NOAA, CBS News reported.

Graham noted that the agency’s predictions in 2024 “got every one of them right last year.”

“We let some folks go, but we’re going to make sure we have everyone on the front lines,” he added .

When asked directly if the job cuts would affect forecasting during the upcoming hurricane season, he said, “The answer is no,” adding that they’re working with the “best model we’ve ever had.”

“We’ll be able to make sure that the information is ready to go out and that we have the data that we need,” Graham said.

Last year’s forecast was “right on the money” and “all fell within NOAA’s predicted ranges,” Laura Grimm, who is performing the duties of the under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere as NOAA administrator, said during the news conference.

She also addressed the agency’s job cuts, stating that despite this reduction, “weather predicting, modeling, and protecting human lives and property are our top priority.”