Tropical Disturbance Could Form Over FL By July 4 Weekend

FLORIDA — While the Atlantic hurricane season is a month old, it's been quiet so far, with two storms forming over Mexico. But, a front expected to stall over Florida has a chance of tropical development over the Fourth of July holiday weekend, the National Hurricane Center said.

The area of low pressure has a 20 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical storm or hurricane over the Sunshine State or the eastern Gulf within the next week, the NHC said.

Either way, the system will bring heavy rain and localized flooding to parts of Florida, Fox 35 said.

"A cold front will dive off the coast late this week, and it may act as a catalyst for development either in the eastern Gulf or off the Southeast coast," an AccuWeather meteorologist said. "Wind shear, which can inhibit development, is expected to be fairly low and ocean water temperatures in the Gulf are above average which can aid in development in the outlooked area."

Rain is in the National Weather Service forecast for Tampa for the next seven days. (See forecast details below.)

There is a low chance (20%) that an area of low pressure could develop into a tropical system near Florida by next weekend. Whether or not a system does develop, increased rainfall is expected through the next week. pic.twitter.com/51Fw2Rw6Xl
— NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) June 30, 2025

The Euro Model is calling for a 40 percent chance of formation, Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Facebook post.

“Still just a big rainmaker at this point,” he wrote.

Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto wrote in a Facebook post that the system “is just something to monitor” over the next few days.

“None of the models are aggressive with development, though all show enhanced rainfall for the next 5 to 7 days,” he wrote.

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The system is appearing as the second named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Barry, fizzles out. Still, Barry’s remnants are bringing heavy rain to inland eastern Mexico.

Barry made landfall Sunday evening in Veracruz, Mexico, AccuWeather reported.

The average date for the second named storm is July 17, reports said.

Tropical Storm Andrea, which formed in the central Atlantic, was the first named storm of the season.

Here's the National Weather Service forecast for the Tampa region:

Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 1pm and 5pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. South southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1am, then isolated showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. South southeast wind 5 to 9 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tuesday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. South southwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. West southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 87. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 76. Southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Independence Day: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

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