Tropical Activity May Pop Up This Week In Caribbean: FL Outlook

FLORIDA — On the heels of Hurricane Rafael, which fizzled out in the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters are eyeing a new area in the western Caribbean Sea for possible tropical development.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form during the next couple of days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The environmental conditions in place “appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter,” NHC meteorologists said.

There’s a 40 percent chance that a tropical depression or storm could form late this week or this weekend while slowly moving west, the NHC said.

If it develops, the next named tropical storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, would be named Sara.

• Forecasters Downgrade 2024 Hurricane Season Predictions

The state has had two hurricanes make landfall this season. Hurricane Milton hit the Tampa Bay area Oct. 9 as a strong Category 3 storm arriving just two weeks after Hurricane Helene, a category 4 that brought lethal flooding to barrier islands. Milton again flooded barrier islands, tore the roof off Tampa Bay Rays stadium and toppled a construction crane in St. Petersburg.

The clustering of showers and thunderstorms is currently near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, AccuWeather said. The risk of the area developing, which could become a concern for Florida, is moderate to high.

An area of wind shear is likely to prevent the potential system from moving north, initially, according to AccuWeather forecasters. This could dissolve by the third week of November, allowing it to move northward and making South Florida and the Keys a potential target.

Later this week, parts of Central America to southeastern Mexico, Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico could see downpours and thunderstorms later this week.

“It's the hurricane season that just won't end. Models are actually in decent agreement. We could see development in the Caribbean the middle of next week,” Dennis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Facebook post.

He added, “Typically a system this late in the season will eventually see a cold front and kick it Northeast. This year has obviously been anything but normal. Ensemble models are obviously all over the place.”