Here’s What An El Niño Winter Could Mean For Florida

FLORIDA — An El Niño climate pattern will mean Floridians will have a warmer and wetter winter, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said in an updated U.S. Winter Outlook released Thursday. And its influence on the state's hurricane season will linger into the start of winter.

The United States hasn’t had an El Niño winter in four years.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists expect wetter-than-average conditions to prevail in Alaska, portions of the West, the Southern Plains, Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic from December through February.

At the same time, it’ll be drier than average across the country’s northern tier, especially in the northern Rockies and High Plains and near the Great Lakes.

“An enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture often present during strong El Niño events supports high odds for above-average precipitation for the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast states this winter,” Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release.

Florida especially experiences higher-than-average rainfall during El Niño winters, News 13 reported. During a typical winter, Central Florida averages between 8 and 19 inches of rainfall. This average rises to 10 and 13 inches during El Niño winters.

The Sunshine State has also seen the effects of El Niño throughout the 2023 hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30. Though it’s been an active season with 20 named storms to already come out of the Atlantic Ocean, Idalia is the only hurricane to hit the state. Most storms have turned toward the northeast United States or Canada or stayed out at sea.

That’s typical when El Niño comes into play during hurricane season. It tends to increase wind shear — a detriment to the development of tropical storms, according to ClickOrlando.com. It also leads to a more active hurricane season in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Cold fronts this month have also kept the storms at bay around Florida, according to News 4 Jax.

A third of the country, including parts of the southern and central U.S., Hawaii and Puerto Rico, is experiencing drought conditions, according to Tuesday’s updated U.S. Drought Monitor.

Most of Florida isn’t currently experiencing a drought as of Oct. 17, though certain areas of the state are, data shows.

The western portion of the Panhandle ranges from extreme drought to moderately dry, while the eastern Panhandle isn’t experiencing drought conditions. A moderate drought label was also recently removed from much of the Big Bend region, though a small section is still considered abnormally dry.

Sections of the state’s west coast, from Hernando County south to Collier County, are also experiencing varying levels of drought conditions, data shows.

Parts of Hillsborough, Manatee and Sarasota counties are experiencing extreme drought. Meanwhile, much of Pinellas County faces severe drought conditions.

Heavy precipitation later this month is likely to ease drought conditions in the central U.S., Brad Pugh, a drought expert with Climate Prediction Center, said in the news release. The heavy precipitation associated with a strong El Niño pattern is expected to provide drought relief to the southern U.S. during the next few months, Pugh said.