Hurricane Ian Expected To Become Major Storm Overnight: NHC

Updated at 11:10 p.m.

FLORIDA — So far, Hurricane Ian has followed predictions that don't bode well for Tampa Bay — reaching Category 2 strength Monday afternoon — and was nearly a major storm late in the evening with 105 mph sustained winds.

The 11 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center showed the storm only 6 mph under the benchmark for a Category 3 story. "Rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Ian is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight or early Tuesday when it is near western Cuba, and remain a major hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday," the NHC said.

Catastrophic flooding caused by a possible 15-foot storm surge in Tampa Bay is a major worry for officials as Hurricane Ian intensifies. (See the latest watches and warnings below.)

“This could be the storm we have all feared,” said Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody.

Parts of Hillsborough and Pinellas counties are under evacuation orders that could displace 300,000 residents. Lines were long at gas stations, grocery stores and home improvement stores selling out of storm supplies especially gas generators.

The manager of a Lowe's store in St. Petersburg told Patch they've been swamped all day and "we just loaded up 50 of (generators) in the last 5 minutes."

Other highlights outlined by Gov. Ron DeSantis Monday:

• Pinellas Zones B and C will have mandatory evacuation as of 7 a.m. Tuesday
• As of 6 p.m. Monday, Pinellas residents in zone A and mobile homes must be evacuated. There are about 44,000 mobile homes in Pinellas County.
• Utility companies have 25,000 workers stationed in the region and ready to go to get the power back on.
• A price-gouging hotline has been activated and Moody said she will prosecute anyone inflating prices during the state of emergency. Residents can report price-gouging online.

Related: Where To Find Gas In Tampa Bay Area: Hurricane Ian Evacuation

As Hurricane Ian approaches Cuba before entering the Gulf of Mexico and making its way to the Sunshine State, Denis Phillips, the meteorologist for ABC in the Tampa Bay area, warned his social media followers that there’s “no candy coating it, this is the real deal” in a Facebook post.

He added, “Take it seriously,” especially along the coast.

Updated Storm Watches, Warnings

Watches and warnings have been updated or added for much of south and west Florida by the NHC as of 11 p.m.

The latest watches and warnings include:

• The Nature Coast, including Pasco, Levy, Citrus, Hernando and Sumner counties, are now under a hurricane warning.
• A hurricane warning is in effect for Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and the Dry Tortugas
• A storm surge warning is in effect for the Anclote River southward to Flamingo, Tampa Bay
• A tropical storm warning is in effect for the lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West, Flamingo to Englewood
• A storm surge watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West, the Dry Tortugas, Florida Bay, the Aucilla River to Anclote River, Altamaha Sound to Flagler/Volusia County Line, Saint Johns River
• A hurricane watch is in effect for north of the Anclote River to the Suwannee River,Bonita Beach to Englewood
• A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge, Lake Okeechobee, north of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound

Ian will bring life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides to the western portion of Cuba starting Monday evening and continuing into Tuesday, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Hurricane Center.

The storm will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.

As it starts to move past the island nation, some Floridians could start feeling the effects of the storm as early as Tuesday night.

State and local officials are worried about up to a foot of rain falling in some areas, and a storm surge of 7 to 10 feet in Tampa Bay. If the storm's eyewall moves into Tampa Bay, the storm surge could be 10 to 15 feet on barrier islands and in the Bay Thursday, the National Weather Service said.

Because of that, a mandatory evacuation has been issued for a part of Hillsborough County already, Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told CNN.

“We are asking everyone to make those plans to leave from zone A, which is basically all the waterfront. The storm surge is really the concern here," Castor said. "Mother Nature always wins and this storm is going to be a very impactful storm. This is nothing to mess around with, if you can leave, just leave now.”

Storm surge and flooding from a predicted 8 to 12 inches of rain or more in the Tampa area have officials urging residents to evacuate if they can.

"Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately," the National Weather Service said. "For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders."

One St. Pete resident told Patch that she and her family evacuated Monday morning, heading to a hotel in Macon, Georgia. While the drive wasn’t bad at the time, what she saw along the way doesn’t bode well for the areas in Hurricane Ian’s projected path.

“Traffic wasn't insane getting out yet; but the amount of linemen, tree service trucks, flatbeds carrying lumber, plywood, rebar, and spools, and FEMA vehicles heading down I-75 South was unreal,” she said. “Especially around I-10. They are preparing for the real deal. It wasn't just a few here and there, it was substantial convoys of all of the above."

Those preparing for the Ian's arrival can check whether their home is in an evacuation zone at floridadisaster.org/planprepare.

As many as 300,000 people may be evacuated from low-lying areas in Hillsborough County alone, county administrator Bonnie Wise said. Some of those evacuations were beginning Monday afternoon in the most vulnerable areas, with schools and other locations opening as shelters.

“We must do everything we can to protect our residents. Time is of the essence,” Wise said in an Associated Press report.

Tropical storm conditions will impact West Central Florida starting late Tuesday, NHC said.

Hurricane-force winds will be possible in the hurricane watch area — which consists of most of the Tampa Bay area — starting Wednesday morning, the agency said.

Heavy rain is expected to fall across the Florida Keys and South Florida starting Tuesday and should spread to central and northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday, NHC said. These rains could cause flash, urban and small stream flooding, while prolonged river flooding is likely across central Florida.

The storm could intensify into a Category 4 hurricane before hitting Florida later this week, the AccuWeather forecast team added.

"By Tuesday, Ian may be a dangerous major hurricane," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said.

Related Stories:

• Hurricane Ian: If You Don't Evacuate, You're On Your Own: Sheriff
• Evacuation Orders For Manatee County Ahead Of Hurricane Ian
• How To Prepare Your Home, Family For Tropical Storm Ian
• How To Prepare For Power Outages: Tropical Storm Ian
• Hurricane Ian: Hillsborough Residents In Zone A Must Evacuate Now

Days ahead of landfall in the Sunshine State, Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for the entire state.

The governor said tolls have been suspended in the Tampa Bay area, including the Sunshine Skyway and many other roads and bridges.

He also activated the National Guard, including 5,000 Florida guardsman and 2,000 from Tennessee, North Carolina and Georgia.

The storm has also caused NASA to postpone the Sept. 27 launch of the Artemis rocket until Oct. 2.

DeSantis also told those stocking up on and hurricane supplies, “There’s no need to panic buy."

Ian is the ninth named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, and seems likely to be the first storm to reach the U.S. this year.

The NHC’s early Monday morning forecast shows Hurricane Ian passing or hitting the Tampa Bay area Thursday around 2 a.m., though the region could become feeling tropical-storm-force winds by Tuesday night.

Rapid strengthening of the storm is expected Monday as it approaches Cuba, with life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds impacting the western portion of the island starting later today, the agency added. The storm is expected to bring heavy rainfall, increasing the likelihood of flash flooding and possible mudslides, in Cuba and Jamaica.

When it makes its way to Florida later this week, “considerable flooding impacts” are expected in the west central area of the state, NHC said. “Additional flash and urban flooding, and flooding on rivers across the Florida peninsula and parts of the Southeast cannot be ruled out for later this week.”

Ian is expected to be a major hurricane as it makes its way across the eastern Gulf of Mexico mid-week, bringing with it “a risk of life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle.”

This increased tropical storm activity in the Atlantic comes after a relatively inactive August. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, and September through November are typically the most active months.

Forecasters at the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center predicted an active hurricane center earlier this year. Forecasters said the ongoing La Niña, in addition to above-average ocean temperatures, signals a 65 percent chance the 2022 hurricane season will be above normal.

They predicted 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, anywhere from six to 10 of the storms could become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher.

Forecasters predicted this year's season will spawn anywhere from three to six major hurricanes rated a category 3 or higher during the season's most active months — September to November.