Atlantic Hurricane Season 2023 Predicted To Be Near Normal: NOAA Forecast

FLORIDA — With the start of hurricane season near, forecasters with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Center for Weather and Climate Prediction say the United States Atlantic coast should expect a "near normal" year that could see one to four major hurricanes.

The center on Thursday released its annual prediction for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.

According to this year's forecast, there's a 30 percent chance that the 2023 hurricane season will be "above normal," the NOAA team of forecasters said. There's a 40 percent chance of a "near normal" season and a 30 percent chance of a "below normal" season.

For the 2023 season, 12 to 17 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher are predicted, forecasters said. Of these named storms, anywhere from five to nine could become hurricanes with winds that are 74 mph or higher.

This year's Atlantic season could also see anywhere from one to four major hurricanes that are category 3 or higher.

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Category 4 strength Hurricane Ian killed at least 148 people in Florida, most of them in coastal communities where dozens of residents drowned in storm surge as seawater swamped their vehicles or inundated their homes, NBC News said. Ian was one of the deadliest hurricanes to hit the U.S. in the past 20 years, the network said.

Florida District Medical Examiners reported 131 deaths attributed to Hurricane Ian.

After three hurricane seasons with La Niña present, NOAA scientists predict a high potential for El Niño to develop this summer, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, the agency said.

El Niño's potential influence on storm development could be offset by favorable conditions local to the tropical Atlantic Basin, including the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which produces African easterly waves and seeds some of the stronger and longer-lived Atlantic storms, and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, which creates more energy to fuel storm development.

These favorable Atlantic conditions combined with the potential for El Niño is “a rare setup for this year,” which is why “there’s a lot of uncertainty this year in the outlook,” forecasters said.

The NOAA forecast deviates from this season's prediction from researchers at Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science, who say the U.S. should expect a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season because of the development of El Niño.

In their April forecast, the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project team predicted 13 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, the project's researchers expect six to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength with sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or greater.

The CSU team also predicts 55 named storm days, 25 hurricane days and five major hurricane days in the Atlantic basin.

In March, AccuWeather's forecasters also said that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will be less active than most seasons since 1995 and will be closer to the historical average of 11 to 15 named storms.

Of these, between four and eight could reach hurricane-strength this season, the private weather company said. Up to three could reach major hurricane status with winds of 111 mph or greater.

“Based on climatology and an evolving El Niño pattern during August through October, the highest chance for direct and significant impacts will be from the Florida Panhandle around the entire state of Florida to the Carolina coast,” AccuWeather's Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said. “There appears to be a lower chance for direct impacts over the western Gulf of Mexico and for the Northeast U.S."

This summer, NOAA will implement a series of upgrades and improvements to its forecasting tools, including a 20 percent expansion of its operational supercomputing system, a new Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System and a Probabilistic Storm Surge model upgrade.

The agency also has several projects underway this season, including new small aircraft drone systems, the modernization and upgrade of the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean buoy array, and the deployment of additional Saildrones and underwater gliders, and WindBorne global sounding balloons.

“With a changing climate, the data and expertise NOAA provides to emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during and after a hurricane has never been more crucial,” Dr. Rick Spinrad, NOAA administrator, said. “To that end, this year we are operationalizing a new hurricane forecast model and extending the tropical cyclone outlook graphic from five to seven days, which will provide emergency managers and communities with more time to prepare for storms.”

Officials urge those living in areas that could be affected by hurricanes to prepare now for the season.

"As we saw with Hurricane Ian, it only takes one hurricane to cause widespread devastation and upend lives. So regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials. Whether you live on the coast or further inland, hurricanes can cause serious impacts to everybody in their path,” FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said. “Visit ready.gov or listo.gov for readiness resources, and get real time emergency alerts by downloading the FEMA App. Actions taken today can save your life when disaster strikes. The time to prepare is now."