Forecasters Downgrade 2024 Hurricane Season Predictions

FLORIDA — A lull in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to continue as AccuWeather forecasters reduced the forecast for the number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes this year.

There was limited tropical activity in the Atlantic basin during an “unusual August,” AccuWeather said in a news release.

It was also the first Labor Day weekend without a named storm in decades. The last time there was not a tropical storm in the Atlantic basin between Aug. 21 to Sept. 2 was in 1997.

There are now 16 to 20 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes, and three to six major hurricanes forecast this season, as well as four to six direct impacts to the United States, the company said.

Anywhere from 17 to 24 named storms with winds 39 mph or greater are forecast during what is expected to be a “highly active” Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its mid-season hurricane outlook update Aug. 7.

• Also Read: ‘Highly Active’ Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected As Peak Looms: NOAA

The reduction in forecast storms comes as three tropical waves are being eyed for possible development — one in the Caribbean Sea and two in the Atlantic, according to the National Hurricane Center.

So far, there have been five named storms this season, which sees its peak Sept. 10. The season ends Nov. 30, though forecasters say tropical threats could extend into December because of warm water temperatures.

The amount of dry air and Saharan dust in the Atlantic last month, as well as the slower-than-expected progression to a La Niña pattern has caused more wind shear in the first half of the season, slowing the formation of storms, Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert, said.

Meteorologists are also monitoring a large pocket of cold water off Africa’s west coast, which “is disrupting the tropical wave train,” he added. “Extremely warm waters across much of the Atlantic basin area ideal for tropical development and rapid intensification, but the surge of dry air, dust, wind shear, and cold waters off the coast of Africa have prevented most tropical waves from developing into a tropical storm or a hurricane.”

Jon Porter, chief meteorologist, said, “Should the current lull continue deeper into September, reductions in the forecast number of named storms will be needed because a longer time period in the core of the hurricane season will have been devoid of named storms.”

The revised forecast of 16 to 20 named storms is still above the historical average of 14 in the Atlantic.

Despite the reduction in forecast storms, it’s “already been a very impactful and destructive hurricane season,” Porter said, adding, “We warned that Texas, the Florida Panhandle, South Florida, and the Carolinas faced a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season. Three of those four areas have already verified this season. Hurricane Beryl made landfall along the Texas coast in July. Hurricane Debby hit the Big Bend region of Florida in August, followed by a second landfall as a tropical storm in South Carolina.”

A preliminary estimate of the total damage from Beryl ranges from $28 to $32 billion, while the estimated economic loss and damage from Debby is $28 billion.

Several major records have already been broken this season. Beryl was the earliest major hurricane on record to form east of the Lesser Antilles in June, the earliest Category 5 hurricane to form and the fastest-moving Category 5 hurricane on record.