Odds Increase For Tropical Storm Development In Caribbean: NHC

FLORIDA — The odds of a broad area of low pressure developing into the next tropical threat out of the Caribbean Sea have increased as of Thursday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The area, which is currently in the southwestern Caribbean, now has a 50 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical depression or storm over the next seven days, forecasters said.

The system could form over the weekend or early next week as it drifts north or northwest over the central or western Caribbean, NHC said.

• Also Read: December Hurricane, Up To 3 More Named Storms Possible

The western Caribbean is an area that has historically seen tropical development in November, Weather Channel forecasters said.

The next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season would be Patty. Forecasters said conditions seem unlikely for a storm to affect Florida.

Though the season ends Nov. 30, there’s a chance that there could be a December hurricane this year and up to three more named storms, AccuWeather forecasters said.

Over the past decade, the hurricane season’s last storm came as early as Oct. 28 and as late as Dec. 7, the Weather Channel said. On average, November, the last month of the season, sees one named storm every one to two years.

The area currently being eyed in the Caribbean “will unfold slowly” if it develops, according to Weather Channel meteorologists.

It’s too soon to know the system’s track if it does strengthen, they added. “It's too early to know what, if any, land areas it might impact in the Caribbean. It's possible this system could head into the Gulf of Mexico sometime next week, but there is no guarantee it would ever bring significant impacts to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Residents, however, should monitor the situation over the next several days until the forecast becomes more clear.”

The potential system “is nowhere near the threat of Helene and Milton,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Wednesday evening Facebook post.

He added, “Nothing significant is going to develop for a week. In 7 days, there will probably be ‘Something’ near the Yucatan. At that point, there will be lots of shear and cooler waters in the Gulf. That something certainly could be Patty. But by the 2nd week of November, there's just not the energy in the atmosphere as there is in September and October. Could it become a threat? Sure. You never say never in weather. Do I honestly think it will be? At this point, I don't.”

Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto said the system is unlikely to have “significant hurricane impacts in Florida.”

“Models continue to suggest that tropical development is possible in the Caribbean this weekend. There have been notable run to run differences, but the big picture continues to indicate that some sort of storm will form. It may end up being the last of the season. We will see,” he wrote in a Facebook post, adding, “Thankfully, water temps have cooled noticeably in the Gulf, and upper level shear should remain moderate to high over us.”

Just three hurricanes have made landfall in Florida in November, since 1851, Dellegatto noted.