Hurricane Rafael Forms In Caribbean: NHC Forecasters

Updated: Tuesday, 10:24 p.m.

FLORIDA — Hurricane Rafael formed Tuesday night in the Caribbean Sea as it approaches the Cayman Islands, which it will near or over in the next 12 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.

It’s then forecast to hit western Cuba Wednesday evening as a Category 2 storm, Geordan Lewis, AccuWeather meteorologist, said.

“Damaging hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge and destructive waves are expected” as it moves across the Caribbean, forecasters said.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the entire region, the NHC said.

As it leaves the Caribbean, Rafael will enter the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall somewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend, though it will lose some of its intensity as it moves into cooler waters and hits more wind shear, according to AccuWeather.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through early Tuesday afternoon and are possible in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys later Wednesday, NHC forecasters said.

It’s difficult to pin down Rafael’s track and intensity once it moves into the Gulf, forecasters said.

“The highest probability of landfall is along the central Louisiana coast. However, since steering breezes may change a bit late this week and this weekend due to the approach of a non-tropical storm from the south-central U.S., there is a wide window as to where landfall will occur. That landfall potential zone extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Texas coast,” AccuWeather said.

“There is lots of uncertainty regarding the track in the Gulf,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Facebook post. “If the storm goes farther (northwest) in the Gulf, it will encounter strong wind shear that will significantly weaken the storm. Anyone from the Panhandle to Texas still needs to watch Rafael closely.”

Florida likely won’t see much of an impact from the storm, which is expected to stay offshore, Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto said.

“The more important part of the forecast is for the ridge of high pressure … to stay strong - which in essence will block Rafael from coming close enough to Florida to bring us significant impacts,” he wrote in a Facebook post. “Models continue to agree this will indeed happen. Tropical systems sliding away from our west coast, not parallelling or approaching our west coast, usually bring minimal impacts, if any at all. This will likely be the case with Rafael.”

Parts of Florida’s west coast will see an increased chance of rain Wednesday and Thursday, “but winds will stay under control and most of the marine impacts will stay offshore,” Dellegatto added.