Tropical Storm Sara Forms In Caribbean, Expected To Move Toward FL

Updated: 3:07 p.m., Thursday

FLORIDA — Tropical Storm Sara formed Thursday afternoon as the system moves across the Caribbean Sea near Central America, forecasters said.

At about 1 p.m., the storm was about 205 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, moving west at 15 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.

With its current track expected to take the storm over Central America before heading into the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters said Sara may not reach hurricane strength before approaching Florida. Even if it weakens, it is still likely to bring rain to the state.

AccuWeather is currently predicting the system could reach Florida late Tuesday or Wednesday morning. Heavy rains from Sara could be enough to lead to flooding downpours and perhaps severe thunderstorms in Florida toward the middle of next week.

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Hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton have already inflicted fatalities and catastrophic damage to parts of the state this hurricane season, which officially ends Nov. 30. If the storm becomes the fourth hurricane this season to hit Florida, it would break the record of three landfalls in one season from 2004, AccuWeather said.

The system will bring heavy rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides across parts of Central America, including Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala and western Nicaragua through early next week, the National Hurricane Center said.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras and the nearby Bay Islands, where tropical storm warnings are in effect, NHC forecasters said.

"Should the [rainstorm] become a hurricane, it would be the 12th of the season, which is a testament to the supercharged nature of the season, where the historical average is seven hurricanes," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

The disturbance is expected to reach near-hurricane strength by the time it moves near the eastern Honduras coast on Friday and Saturday, NHC forecasters said. Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect in that area.

After this, the system is forecast to approach Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula at or near hurricane strength by early next week, bringing with it “a risk of dangerous storm surge and damaging winds,” according to the NHC.

“Land proximity was a concern with the depression for strengthening early on. If the center is able to remain offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras for a couple of days, it could still reach hurricane intensity,” AccuWeather forecasters said. “But because of the proximity to land, rapid strengthening to a major hurricane now seems unlikely.”

It will still bring significant rainfall to the region. Up to 30 inches of rain could fall in parts of northern Honduras, while other areas of Central America — from Belize to Nicaragua — could see up to 15 inches of rain, the Weather Channel said.

How long Sara interacts with land in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula, which is likely to weaken the system, will affect its track and intensity.

“From there, it may diminish over the region or possibly begin a turn toward the Gulf of Mexico. However, with such a path over land for a number of hours, it would lose wind intensity, and it may not have time to regain hurricane strength before any approach to Florida,” AccuWeather forecasters said. “Water temperatures are not as warm over the Gulf as they are over the western Caribbean, so a regain of wind intensity could be slow.”

Greg Dee, meteorologist for ABC Action News, agrees.

“Intensity forecasts for this system have come down a TON over the last 24 hours (and) the trend for a weaker system from yesterday continues today … (with models keeping) the system a tropical storm while near Honduras,” he wrote in a Facebook post. “There will be a short window over the weekend for some strengthening as it moves away from Honduras (and) heads toward Belize. The storm will then spend much of Sat, Sun (and) Mon over the Yucatan. That's a VERY long time. It will likely weaken to a minimal tropical storm or tropical depression during this time.”

The current forecast says the disturbance will likely enter the Gulf as a tropical storm by Tuesday, according to the Weather Channel.

Models show that it will move east toward Florida, ahead of a strong cold front coming in from the Plains, by Wednesday, experts said.

But Dee expects that the system won’t survive its time over the Yucatan.

Overnight models “show either nothing or a tiny, weak, low pressure coming out over the Gulf (and) getting absorbed by a front with little to no additional strengthening,” he wrote. “This would be great for Florida as it basically would mean no storm. Both the presence of the front (and) BIG upper-level wind shear would prevent anything from developing in the Gulf.”

Even if it weakens, the system's remnants would still likely bring heavy rains to Florida, Fox 13’s Paul Dellagato wrote in a Facebook post.

“What is left of Sara will be in the southwestern Gulf early next week. We will likely see some rain from the system during the middle of next week as the storm rides northeast ahead of a cold front. Not expecting hurricane impacts here from Sara,” he wrote.