Tropical Storm Rafael Forms In Caribbean: NHC

Updated: Monday, 5:58 p.m. EST

FLORIDA — A weather system moving across the Caribbean Sea strengthened into Tropical Storm Rafael Monday afternoon, National Hurricane Center forecasters said.

It’s expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday evening as it passes near or over the Cayman Islands, NHC said.

A hurricane watch is in place for the Cayman Islands on Monday, AccuWeather said. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica Monday night into Tuesday.

It’s expected to intensify further before reaching western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday, where storm surge and hurricane-force winds are expected.

“Rafael is primed to go through ‘rapid intensification’ over the next 36 hours. It's expected to be a Cat 2 hurricane upon approach to the Cayman Islands and Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday,” Denis Phillips, chief meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Facebook post.

The Florida Keys should keep a close eye on Rafael, according to NHC forecasters. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys starting late Wednesday.

“The impacts should be minimal for our (Tampa Bay) area. The Keys, however, could see some pretty squally weather out of what will be Rafael,” Phillips wrote.

"The brewing tropical storm is expected to make a northeastward turn across Jamaica and Cuba this week, bringing heavy downpours and gusty winds to those islands,” said Alan Reppert, AccuWeather’s senior meteorologist.

While the storm will bring 1 to 2 inches of rain across Jamaica north into Cuba, heavier rain of 4 to 8 inches is expected in western Cuba and central Jamaica — closer to the storm’s track — with some areas seeing as much as 14 inches.

"This rain can lead to flash flooding, landslides and difficult travel in parts of Jamaica and Cuba," Reppert said.

Later this week, the system is likely to enter the western Gulf of Mexico. Though the long-range forecast shows the storm moving west or northwest, there are “significant uncertainties” about its track and intensity, NHC said. “It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur.”

Heavy rainfall is expected to spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the U.S. Southeast mid to late week, the agency added.

The system’s track will be affected by “the movement of a dip in the jet stream more than 1,000 miles away over the U.S.,” Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather’s chief on-air meteorologist, said. "If that jet stream dip pushes far enough to the east, it will tend to scoop up the tropical feature and possibly draw it across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and into South Florida. But, if the jet stream dip lags to the west, the tropical feature may push into the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas as far to the west as Louisiana or Texas. There's also the possibility it continues due westward and diminishes over southern Mexico."

Models have shown the system staying “consistently west” of Florida, according to Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto. “And west is good!”

“What will be Rafael will be steered between a protective ridge (high pressure) over Florida and a trough over Texas. There are some model differences on how close the storm will come to our west coast, but most keep the storm a good distance west of us. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage Wednesday,” he wrote in a Facebook post.

“How much rain we receive will be determined by how close the storm gets to our west coast and how strong it is. Same with winds and storm surge. This will NOT be another Helene or Milton, though any storm paralleling our coast, even a good distance west of us, will raise water levels some.”

It’s also likely to downgrade back to a tropical storm as it enters the Gulf.

“Rafael is predicted to undergo some level of weakening in the Gulf of Mexico because it will likely encounter increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds, some dry air and cooling Gulf of Mexico waters,” the Weather Channel said.