‘Highly Active’ Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected As Peak Looms: NOAA

FLORIDA — Anywhere from 17 to 24 named storms with winds 39 mph or greater are forecast during what is expected to be a “highly active” Atlantic hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its mid-season hurricane outlook update Wednesday.

Hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30.

Of these named storms, anywhere from eight to 13 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, including four to seven major hurricanes that are category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher. The updated outlook includes the four named storms to date.

This week's outlook is similar to the agency’s outlook issued in May, NOAA said, which called for 17 to 25 total named storms. Of those, eight to 13 were forecast to become hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes.

The most recent named storm was Debby, which made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane Monday morning in Florida’s Big Bend area.

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Prior to this, Tropical Storm Alberto brought nearly a foot of rain to parts of Texas and New Mexico in June, while Tropical Storm Chris brought rain to parts of Mexico in early July.

On July 1, Hurricane Beryl formed as the earliest Category 5 storm on record in the Atlantic basin. Beryl caused catastrophic damage and about 45 deaths across several islands in the Caribbean Sea, Texas, Louisiana and Vermont.

"The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, NOAA administrator, said. “NOAA’s update to the hurricane seasonal outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur.”

In a typical season, 14 named storms form in the Atlantic basin, including seven hurricanes, three of which are major hurricanes, NOAA said.

“Atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 90 (percent) probability of this result,” the agency said. “2024 has only a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season and a negligible chance of a below-normal season.”

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions setting the stage for an extremely active hurricane season include warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon, forecasters said.

The dry Saharan air that has prevented tropical storm development at times this season, so far, is also expected to ease in August.