Hurricane Ian: Possible Devastating Storm Surge Forecast In Tampa Bay

UPDATED AT 8:30 p.m.

TAMPA BAY, FL — The National Weather Service in Tampa Bay said Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough counties can expect to bear the brunt of Hurricane Ian's impacts, with possibly more than 15 feet of storm surge predicted with the "potential for devastation" in Tampa Bay.

Now located 445 miles south-southwest of Fort Myers, still south of Cuba, Hurricane Ian is packing maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane.

It is moving north-northwest at 13 mph. Winds are expected to extend 240 miles out in the next two days.

National Weather Service warning coordination meteorologist Dan Noah said during the 7 p.m. NWS update, the hurricane is forecast to be a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday.

Then the hurricane is forecast to decrease to a Category 2/1 hurricane when it reaches landfall, expected to occur around Tampa Bay. He said the decrease in wind speed and slow-down are due to wind shear that will impact the storm.

This could mean trouble for Tampa Bay because the slow-down will cause the hurricane to hover over Tampa Bay and the Nature Coast for an extended period, battering the west coast with hurricane-force winds and 10 to 15 inches of rain in areas that are already saturated due to recent rainfall.

Tropical storm and hurricane watches have expanded northward.

The Nature Coast, including Pasco, Levy, Citrus, Hernando and Sumner counties, are now under a Hurricane Warning.

The coasts of Pinellas and Hillsborough counties are under a Hurricane Watch.

Eastern Hillsborough County is under a Tropical Storm Warning.

The area from Anclote south throughout Pinellas County is under a Storm Surge Warning and the Nature Coast is under a Storm Surge Watch.

A watch means it is forecast to occur in the next 24 to 48 hours. A warning means it could occur any time between now and 24 hours.

Two forecast models used by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, the Global Forecast System Model and the European Model, predict potential devastation from storm surge to parts of the Gulf Coast.

According to the NWS, if the eyewall of Hurricane Ian moves into Tampa Bay, it will produce at least 10 to 15 feet of storm surge on the barrier islands of Pinellas County on Thursday and potentially 10 to 15 feet of storm surge in Tampa Bay.

See related stories:

• Tampa Bay In Direct Path Of Hurricane Ian: Forecasters
• Hurricane Ian: 5-10 Foot Storm Surge, FL Will Feel Effect Tuesday
• Hurricane Ian: Hillsborough Residents In Zone A Must Evacuate Now
• Hurricane Ian: If You Don't Evacuate, You're On Your Own: Sheriff
• Hurricane Ian Forecast To Hit Pasco County As Major Hurricane

If Hurricane Ian's eyewall moves into Tampa Bay, it could produce 10 to 15 feet of storm surge along the Pinellas County barrier islands Thursday and 15 feet of storm surge in Tampa Bay.

Residents living along the Nature Coast, which includes Pasco, Wakulla, Jefferson, Taylor, Dixie, Levy, Citrus and Hernando counties, should plan for 10 to 15 feet of storm surge Thursday night.

Storm surge refers to the possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline.

Much of the Tampa Bay and Nature Coast areas are forecast to receive 7 to 12 inches of rain with
isolated rainfall of up to 20 inches.

Most of the rain will fall Tuesday night through Thursday night, according to the NWS.