Tropical Storm Ernesto Brings Warnings To Caribbean: Updated Forecast

Updated at 5:30 p.m. Monday

FLORIDA — Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico and other Caribbean islands as Tropical Storm Ernesto moves across the Atlantic Monday evening, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In its 5 p.m. advisory, the NHC said the growing tropical disturbance had reached tropical storm strength with sustained winds of 40 mph. Ernesto was about 590 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, moving west-northwest at 28 mph.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for numerous Caribbean islands, including the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands late Monday night or Tuesday and near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Tuesday evening. Ernesto is then forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic, the NHC said.

Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days. Puerto Rico is likely to receive 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with maximum amounts of 10 inches expected.

Ernesto is the fifth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

After Hurricane Debby’s recent hit to Florida, bringing historic rainfall and flooding to parts of the state, residents of the Sunshine State are eyeing the storm’s track.

Once it passes the Caribbean islands, the system is expected to move northeast into the open waters of the Atlantic and away from the United States and far from Florida.

There’s “no threat to the U.S. mainland,” Denis Phillips, meteorologist for ABC Action News, wrote in a Facebook post.

Related:

• Dog Caught In TS Debby Reunited With FL Family After 918 Days Missing
• ‘Highly Active’ Atlantic Hurricane Season Expected As Peak Looms: NOAA

“Confidence is high that (future Hurricane Ernesto) will pass well east of Florida,” Fox 13’s Paul Dellegatto wrote in a Facebook post. “We can thank a trough on the coast for the turn. Unfortunately, good news for Florida is bad news for someone else. The Lesser Antilles, US Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico will have impacts from the storm. Bermuda will have to watch it as well.”

In Florida, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout much of the state this week.

Here’s the latest forecast for the Tampa Bay area from the National Weather Service:

• Monday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 106. West southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Monday Night: Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 8 p.m. Mostly clear, with a low around 78. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 10 percent.
• Tuesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 106. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 40 percent.
• Tuesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8 p.m. Mostly clear, with a low around 78. West northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Wednesday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 94. Calm wind becoming west northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent.
• Wednesday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Thursday: Isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 94. Calm wind becoming north northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Thursday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. East northeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent.
• Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 93. Northeast wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Friday Night: Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 8 p.m. Mostly clear, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.