Here's When IL May Be Able To Relax Social Distancing: Study

ILLINOIS — Despite earlier projections that the coronavirus outbreak would peak in April, Gov. J.B. Pritzker said this week new projections indicate the peak won't come for Illinois until mid-May. The case count stood at 33,059 as of Tuesday afternoon, and 1,468 people have died of the virus across the state.

The state's current stay-at-home order expires April 30, but all indications are that it will be extended. So, when can we finally ease restrictions and put an end to social distancing in Illinois?

Illinois Coronavirus Update April 22: 30,357 Cases; 1,290 Deaths — Don't miss updates about precautions in the Chicago area as they are announced — Sign up for Patch news alerts and newsletters.

The Institute for Health Metrics, which was behind one of the nation's leading coronavirus models, released new findings this week that some states may be able to relax social distancing measures as early as May 4, provided "robust containment strategies" are in place to prevent a second wave of infections.

Those findings are based on estimates of when infections will drop below one per million people in each state. According to the institute, Illinois may be able to ease up on social distancing beginning May 19, provided that the state can expand its testing and contact tracing capabilities, isolate new infections and continue to limit the size of social gatherings.

The state is working to increase its testing capacity but has thus far failed to meet its 10,000-test-a-day goal. The lack of testing is even more pronounced in the state's African American communities. Health experts say federal and state governments' failure to test enough people is the biggest barrier to reopening the country.

Illinois restricted mass gatherings on March 13 and closed non-essential businesses a few days later on March 16. Schools held classes for the last time on March 17, and a statewide stay-at-home order took effect March 21.

In a video interview for Washington Post Live, the governor noted that Illinois was the second state after California to issue a stay-at-home order.

"The result is we've had many fewer deaths than anticipated, our hospitalization rate is somewhat stable, climbing a little bit but somewhat stabilizing — and, of course, our ventilator needs have gone down," Pritzker said.

Last week, the governor said he would work in "close coordination" with six other Midwestern governors, including Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, Tony Evers of Wisconsin, Mike DeWine of Ohio, Tim Waltz of Minnesota, Eric Holcomb of Indiana and Andy Beshear of Kentucky, "to reopen our economies in a way that prioritizes our workers' health."

Michigan may also be able to relax social distancing on May 19, according to the same study, followed by Indiana a day later on May 20, Wisconsin on May 21 and Minnesota on May 30. Ohio may be able to do so even earlier on May 14. Meanwhile neighboring Missouri — which isn't coordinating with Illinois — won't be able to do so until June 7, followed by Kentucky on June 11 and Iowa on June 26.

"Actual decisions by states to relax social distancing should be informed by meeting critical metrics closer to these dates, including a very low number of estimated infections in the community — less than 1 estimated infection per 1 million people," analysts wrote in a summary of the study.

The Seattle-based institute's models, which have been cited by members of the White House Coronavirus task force, now estimate there will be 60,308 COVID-19 deaths across the United States by Aug. 4. That's down from the 68,841 predicted by the institute's researchers on April 13.

"We are seeing the numbers decline because some state and local governments, and, equally important, individuals around the country have stepped up to protect their families, their neighbors, and friends and coworkers by reducing physical contact," said Christopher Murray, the institute's director. "Now, the challenge — as well as opportunity — is for states to figure out how to reopen the U.S. economy and allow people to get back to work without sacrificing that progress. Relaxing social distancing too soon carries great risks of a resurgence of new infections. No one wants to see this vicious cycle repeating itself."

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned of that possibility in a Washington Post interview Tuesday.

"There's a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through," Robert Redfield told the paper.

You can see the Institute for Health Metric's full analysis here.

Kara Seymour contributed to this report.