Study: Boundary Changes Not Enough to Address Space Needs in District 58

District 58 recently contracted the professional services of Cropper GIS Consulting to conduct a demographic study of the district.  The study included an in-depth analysis of enrollment, residency and census data along with Geographic Information System (GIS) data.  The study aimed to examine enrollment trends throughout the district as well as current and future building capacity needs.  The district intended to use study results to inform the current facility planning efforts of the board and administration.  Additionally, the study examined the need for and potential impact of boundary adjustments on both current and projected overcrowding in district schools. Superintendent Kari Cremascoli presented the results of the study to the Board of Education at its January 14 meeting and led a discussion regarding next steps.

The district is grappling with space constraints in several of its schools -- most significantly at Pierce Downer School. As the district continues its pursuit of facility analyses and improvement efforts throughout the district, the purpose of the Cropper study was to answer two primary questions:

•  Based on enrollment, residency and census data, are there demographic trends within our district and the individual residency zones of each school that might help us to predict schools that may be under- or overutilized?
•  What would be the enrollment impact of adjusting boundaries in the residency zone of our overcrowded school(s) identified as being in substantial need of relief?

The firm analyzed current student enrollment data, 10-year enrollment trends, GIS data, the District 58 map, including residency boundaries, data from the 2010 census, and input from district staff. Population pyramids were generated for the district as a whole, as well as for individual schools. These pyramids show the number of District 58 residents in various age cohorts in each of the school attendance areas and offer insight into residency trends in each area. Primary areas of interest are children in the 0-4 age group who will likely enroll in District 58 schools in the future; residents of family formation age who will likely have young children in the future; and empty-nesters or turnover households who could potentially sell their homes to younger families. 

Notable findings as pertains to individual schools include very likely enrollment increases at Henry Puffer and Indian Trail schools.  Slight decreases in enrollment are probable at Hillcrest and Kingsley schools.  In examining the two schools currently experiencing overcrowding, Lester School is likely to continue to experience a slight but steady decline in enrollment over the next several years, while Pierce Downer School will see slight increases in enrollment before enrollment begins to taper off absent significant in-migration. This information affirmed the district’s current interpretation of enrollment trends and highlighted two new areas of projected enrollment growth.

Cropper GIS then analyzed the impact of adjusting boundaries in the residency zones of overcrowded schools identified as being in substantial need of relief. In light of study results as well as the comprehensive facilities study conducted last year by Wight and Co. and the careful examination conducted by district administration over the past year, Pierce Downer has been identified as being in significant need of relief from overcrowding issues. Therefore, the focus of boundary adjustment considerations was on the Pierce Downer residency zone. In addition to the aforementioned information included within the demographic study, Cropper GIS and district administrators also included historical and predicted enrollment trends, space utilization analyses and school capacity analyses in addressing the second question.

Careful analysis of the data indicates that redistricting alone will not adequately address the significant space needs at Pierce Downer.  The North, East and South boundaries of the Pierce Downer residency zone provide little to no opportunity for boundary adjustments without substantial and dramatic changes to the costs and ways in which the district operate schools, provide transportation and facilitate our neighborhood schools concept due to natural and fixed boundary lines provided by Ogden Avenue, Main Street and the train tracks, respectively.  Progressively invasive boundary line adjustments on the West end of the residency zone would yield progressive but quite small adjustments to enrollment.  Minor adjustments quickly resulted in increased classroom space needs at Puffer without relieving classroom space needs at Pierce Downer -- and would likely create future space issues at Henry Puffer.  

The board determined that they will not pursue any immediate boundary changes for its schools at this time. However, to ensure prudent future planning, administration and the board will continue to carefully monitor and analyze enrollment trends, building capacities and building usage, particularly as housing market improve and housing turnover occurs leading to potentially greater in-migration of families and young children.  The board also will continue to pursue its current facility improvement planning, including the prioritized list of operations, maintenance and life safety needs in each building, as well as the potential addition at Pierce Downer.  The board plans to revisit its discussion on school residency and enrollment trends once the 2013-14 enrollment data becomes available this fall. 

Click here to view the full presentation from the January 14 meeting. 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

There are plenty of ways to keep up on Downers Grove news:

• Sign up for our daily email newsletter

• Like us on Facebook for a slightly different take