Crime Is Down. Why Won't MAGA Admit It?

Full disclosure as I write this: I was a victim of serious crime twice in my twenties. I was mugged in a city neighborhood at knifepoint, but a Good Samaritan helped, and I was luckily unharmed. The second time, I was attacked on a date, and I fought him off. Both criminals were white men.
I have also worked with women over the past two decades who have been victims with horrifying stories—much worse than my own experiences.

I understand what it is like to be scared.

We certainly need to acknowledge that there is a problem in our cities, but we also must recognize the notable progress made and commit to working harder—yet smarter.
How about we do something bold, such as understanding what actually works and then doing that? By the way, we already are. Please read on.
Looking at the current landscape: Crime is down.
Big city crime has significantly declined in recent years, thanks to a combination of effective policing strategies, community engagement, mental health initiatives, and technological advances.

Reasons for the Decline in Big City Crime

• Enhanced Policing Strategies: Many cities have adopted data-driven methods like CompStat, which uses real-time crime data to dispatch resources more efficiently. This targeted approach has been effective in reducing offenses.
• Adding Mental Health and Social Workers: Increasingly, cities are integrating mental health and social workers into community safety and police departments. When incidents involve mental health or domestic issues, having both safety experts and mental health professionals on scene makes a difference. It works.
• Community Engagement and Programs: Neighborhood watch groups, youth outreach, and community policing build trust between law enforcement and residents, encouraging cooperation and proactive crime prevention.
• Technological Advancements: Surveillance cameras, license plate readers, and predictive analytics help law enforcement detect and prevent criminal activity more effectively.
• Economic and Social Factors: Improved economic conditions and targeted social programs attacking the root causes of crime—such as job training, neighborhood investments, and attracting solid employers—also contribute to reductions.
• City Policing District Councils: Collaborations between community members and police, as seen in Chicago and other cities, have proven effective in reducing crime.

Programs Proven to Work:

In Chicago, several initiatives have reduced crime by up to 30%, including:

1. SC2: A city-based, community investment program targeting West and South Side neighborhoods
2. READI: An infrastructure of outreach that empowers at-risk individuals and shows better paths forward
3. Peacekeepers: A group focused on de-escalation and violence prevention at the community level
4. SCAN: A program matching at-risk youth with navigators to guide them toward positive futures Thank you all for your kind support. Importantly, we are 100% reader supported and bring new content, research, ideas and resources with each column. We would be indebted to have you consider becoming a paid subscriber.

Statistics and Facts Supporting the Decline

• According to the FBI, the national violent crime rate decreased by approximately 25% between 2019 and 2023. In many large cities, the decline has been even more pronounced; Chicago saw a 30% reduction in gun violence incidents from 2021 to 2023.
• Property crime rates in cities like New York and Los Angeles fell by over 20% during the same period, based on police reports.
• A 2024 Pew Research Center report indicates that 60% of Americans believe that major cities are safer than they were five years ago—a perception aligned with the statistical downward trend.
• Cities implementing community policing, such as Minneapolis and Houston, have experienced 15-20% declines in certain crime categories, demonstrating the efficacy of community-oriented strategies.

What Doesn’t Work
Deploying military troops into cities who lack training in policing, community safety, crime investigation, and community support initiatives is ineffective and often counterproductive.

Why Won’t Conservatives Believe Crime Is Down?
Bias influences perception. When crime appears on the news—or any issue, really—it’s often believed to be true universally. Some Americans elevate one incident to represent the entire community or population.
The far right, including some MAGA supporters, sometimes exploit this logic to justify racist narratives. They cherry-pick one incident among millions to support a broader, often racist, idea when the facts on the ground tell a different story.

Countering this harmful narrative involves two important steps:

1. Share positive stories of crime reduction. For example, I know someone who was a hardened gang member in his teens, saw the destructive consequences of his actions, and turned his life around—he’s now a successful lawyer helping others. Additionally, I’ve seen three nonprofit organizations reduce crime significantly in four Chicago neighborhoods over five years. Programs work.
2. Remind people of the facts. Instead of whining or spreading negativity, encourage volunteering or donating to organizations working to reduce crime. Also, promote stopping profiling, stereotyping, and racist attitudes.

What Can You Do?
Support and encourage learning about nonprofits and programs that work:

• [First Step Alliance](https://www.firststepalliance.org/post/25-social-justice-organizations?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=15039195798&gbraid=0AAAAABnup9i
• https://www.visioningbeyondvio...