'Dreaded' Fall Coronavirus Surge Is Here; County Shatters Record

ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY, MD — The fall coronavirus surge is here, health officials say. Infections have grown exponentially over the last few weeks, breaking records and knocking Anne Arundel County back to its June levels.

Anne Arundel County Health Officer Dr. Nilesh Kalyanaraman wrote a column in the Capital Gazette last Monday, warning residents of the next wave of coronavirus cases. He urged locals to mask up, wash their hands and stay home when possible.

"Each of us has a personal responsibility to take steps to slow the spread," Kalyanaraman said. "These strategies layer on top of each other. The more you do, the better chance of stopping the spread."

Kalyanaraman said the dropping temperature makes it difficult to battle the fall surge. As the weather gets chillier, more activities move inside where the virus spreads faster.

Easing restrictions and growing coronavirus fatigue has led many to let their guard down, Kalyanaraman added. He also believes asymptomatic carriers are adding to the county's problem.

Case Rate

Health officials focus on several metrics to evaluate the coronavirus pandemic. The most frequently-used are the case rate, hospitalizations and percent positivity.

The case rate is a per-capita measure that makes it easy to compare places with different populations. A jurisdiction's case rate is the average number of new coronavirus infections-per-day that it registers over a rolling week per 100,000 people.

As a barometer, Maryland health officials say expanded in-person classes are probably safe when the local case rate dips below 5. Right now, Anne Arundel County's case rate has spiked to 20. That's the county's highest mark since the pandemic started.

Anne Arundel's case rate hit previous highs of 13.4 on June 3 and 14.26 on Aug. 2. It reached a low of 3.53 on June 26, but it's been an upward climb since then.

"The dreaded COVID-19 fall surge is here," Kalyanaraman said. "As we enter the ninth month of the pandemic, the predicted increase in cases and deaths has arrived and is getting worse."

Hospitalizations

Coronavirus-related hospitalizations have also pointed upward. The disease left 51 people hospitalized in Anne Arundel County on Sunday. That's down from the county's high of 172 hospitalizations on April 21, but it still a sharp increase from recent trends.

The county had fewer than 50 hospitalizations between June 14 and Oct. 18. They hit an overall low of 21 on Sept. 21.

Anne Arundel's hospitalizations hit a recent high of 59 last Tuesday. That was the most since June 11.

Covid ActNow, a coronavirus statistics website, estimates that Anne Arundel County has 50 beds in the intensive care unit. The organization says the county can dedicate about around 35 of those beds to coronavirus patients.

On Sunday, Anne Arundel had 20 patients in the ICU with the virus. The county's 22 patients in the ICU on Saturday were the most since June 12. ICU hospitalizations maxed out at 49 on May 13 and receded to 4 by Aug. 24.

"It’s also important to think about your actions," Kalyanaraman said. "With a little sacrifice you can slow down the spread."

Positivity Rate

The county's positivity rate is also on the upswing. This is the percentage of coronavirus tests that come back positive over a moving seven days. The statistic also measures whether an area has enough tests to identify most of its infections.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says a positivity rate of less than 5 percent demonstrates that a region has enough testing to control its outbreak. The Maryland Department of Health says hybrid learning should be safe when jurisdictions fall beneath this benchmark.

Anne Arundel County's positivity rate has ascended to 5.46 percent. That's down from its April 16 high of 28.16 percent, but it's up from its Aug. 16 low of 2.29 percent.

The county stayed beneath the 5 percent positivity threshold for 137 days. That streak, which started on June 22, came to an end Saturday.

"We need to redouble our efforts before we lose control," Kalyanaraman said.

Total Cases And Deaths

Anne Arundel County's 13,224 coronavirus infections are the 5th most in the state. The virus is blamed for the death of 271 county residents. Two of those deaths came in the last 10 days.

Kalyanaraman said that stopping the spread will allow the county to save lives, reopen schools safely and rebuild the economy.

"None of these goals should be in competition with each other," the health officer said. "But right now they are, which is causing tension and strife."

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