Hogan Leading All Democrats In Maryland Senate Race: New Poll

MARYLAND — Former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan has a double-digit lead in Maryland's crowded race for the U.S. Senate, a new poll suggests, creating new worries for a national Democratic Party hoping to retain control of that chamber.

There are 10 Democrats and seven Republicans in the Maryland Senate race.

The Washington Post and the University of Maryland released the joint poll Wednesday.

In a hypothetical general election, the poll estimates that Hogan has 49 percent of the vote to 37 percent for Democratic front-runner U.S. Rep. David Trone. Trone currently represents Maryland's 6th Congressional District, which covers parts of Montgomery County, Frederick County and all of Western Maryland. He also owns Total Wine, a national liquor store chain.

The poll says Hogan has a 50 percent to 36 percent lead over Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, a Democrat, in another hypothetical match-up.

Democrats outnumber Republican voters 2 to 1 in deep-blue Maryland. These poll results suggest that Maryland could deviate from its traditionally Democratic ways.

Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin is retiring after this term, meaning the race is wide open for a replacement.

Hogan served as governor from January 2015 to January 2023. He was the first Republican governor to win a second term in decades.

While Hogan considered running for president, he ultimately decided against mounting a challenge to former president Donald Trump, who Hogan has long criticized. Hogan joined the Senate race last month, disrupting an election that leaned heavily Democratic until that point.

Hogan bills himself as a moderate businessperson with common-sense solutions. He cut taxes by $1.86 billion in 2022 and unsuccessfully fought for schools to start after Labor Day years prior.

Hogan frequently criticized Trump and said publicly that he didn't vote for him in either the 1016 or 2020 elections. In a contrast with the Trump White House response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Hogan gained national attention during the crisis, juggling business and health interests.

These attributes made Hogan popular across party lines as he pushed Marylanders to get vaccinated as soon as they could, and backed health precautions in the early days of the pandemic.

Democrats, however, criticize Hogan's stance on national issues like abortion access while he was governor. Hogan issued a veto, which was ultimately overridden, for a law that expanded who can provide an abortion.

After announcing his Senate bid, Hogan said he would not vote for a national abortion ban, although he doesn't personally support abortions. He called the matter "settled law."

Democrats also point to Hogan's record of expanding highways instead of funding public transportation.

During Hogan's tenure, the Purple Line of the Metro through the DC suburbs and the Red Line light rail through the Baltimore suburbs both stalled. Both projects are again pressing ahead under current Gov. Wes Moore (D).

Trone and Alsobrooks have tried to rally voters around Democratic talking points to undercut support for Hogan. Voters, however, seem convinced thus far by Hogan's governorship.

Though this race leans Republican, Marylanders told pollsters by a 20-point margin that they prefer Democratic control of the U.S. Senate.

Trone leads Alsobrooks 34 percent to 27 percent in the primary, the poll said, noting that 39 percent of Democrats haven't picked a candidate yet.

The Post said the margin of error was plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for all voters and 4.5 points for registered Democrats. The survey, conducted from March 5 to March 12, used a random sample of registered voters statewide. Pollsters interviewed 1,004 registered voters.

The Post said 64 percent were reached for cell phone interviews while 15 percent were conducted on landlines and 21 percent were held online after receiving a text invitation.

To learn more about the poll's methodology, read The Post's story.

The primary election is on May 14. The general election is on Nov. 5.

More information on this year's election is posted here. That website has more details on voter registration, voting locations, early voting, mail-in ballots and dropbox voting.