Hurricane Likely To Form Later This Week: What It Means For MD

A tropical rainstorm in the Atlantic Ocean formed into Tropical Storm Erin on Monday. Forecasters predict Erin will likely become a hurricane later this week, and Maryland could potentially be impacted by the storm.

The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang said Erin is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday and could strengthen into a major hurricane of at least Category 3 by this weekend. The question for Marylanders is whether the storm stays out in ocean currents, or heads up the East Coast.

If Erin reaches hurricane status, it will be the first of the 2025 Atlantic season, according to the National Hurricane Center at NOAA.

“Erin will enter an area with conducive atmospheric conditions that will allow it to quickly strengthen north of the Lesser Antilles," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "This storm will likely intensify into a major hurricane this weekend over an area with exceptionally warm waters and little disruptive wind shear."

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According to DaSilva, water temperatures across the part of the Atlantic where hurricanes mainly develop are warm enough to support tropical development and even rapid intensification of storms.

"Temperatures at the surface and hundreds of feet deep are higher than the historical average in many places," DaSilva said. "We are entering the time of year when ocean temperatures typically reach their warmest point of the year, between mid-August and mid-October.”

As of Tuesday morning, the center of Erin was located about 750 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Maximum winds were around 45 mph, and the storm was moving west at 22 mph.

Two scenarios are currently being tracked by AccuWeather. In one, the storm tracks away from the United States and heads back to sea. In the second, Erin will head toward the East Coast.

“If the trough is stronger and faster, it will help steer Erin away from the East Coast and out to sea. If the trough is slower, the storm will be able to advance farther westward toward the coast of the Carolinas,” DaSilva said.

It is too early to be certain how the storm will play out, but forecasters are leaning towards Erin moving away from the United States.

In either case, Maryland won't feel the effects of the storm until next week. Even if it tracks away from the states, Erin will still likely create rough surf conditions and rip currents along Maryland's Eastern Shore.

Marylanders should pay attention to the forecast over the next few days as it becomes more concrete.

The Atlantic hurricane season is ramping up for the year. According to AccuWeather, the average date for the first hurricane is Aug. 11. Two other systems are currently forming in the Atlantic, though they aren't expected to intensify.

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