Will Maryland Have A White Christmas In 2021?

MARYLAND — For some, the holidays simply aren’t the same without a blanket of fresh, white snow on the ground. But what are the odds of actually experiencing this simple pleasure on Christmas Day in Maryland?

A white Christmas could be hard to come by in some parts of the United States this year, according to newly released forecasts by prognosticators including Farmers’ Almanac and Accuweather.

Meanwhile, other states face an even greater chance for snow thanks to La Niña, a meteorological phenomenon during which sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean drop to lower-than-average levels.

La Niña played a major role in this year’s predictions, according to Accuweather, tending to steer storms northward and cutting off moisture to the southern portion of the United States.

So what does this mean for Maryland this Christmas? Will we see fresh snow this holiday weekend?

It is possible, according to the Farmers' Almanac Christmas 2021 forecast.

Maryland residents can expect "frigidly cold weather" in time for the holiday. The Farmers' Almanac lumps Maryland in with the Northeast, a region that it says includes Pennsylvania, Delaware, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, New Jersey and Washington D.C.

Those in the Northeast may see flurries and "scattered snow showers," according to the Farmers' Almanac.

The Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Midwest can also expect a frigidly cold Christmas.

In the Southeast, it will be dry and cold through that weekend. States in the northern Plains can expect fair skies and fair temperatures, while some Southern states including Texas and New Mexico should brace for cold weather.

How Likely Is A White Christmas?

Chances are low overall that snow will be on the ground in central Maryland for Christmas, according to the Farmers' Almanac.

This year, the probability is about 10 to 25 percent, according to a formula the Farmers' Almanac uses to predict the probability a snow depth of at least 1 inch on Christmas Day in Maryland.

In the Sierras, Cascades, the leeward side of the Great Lakes and northern New England, Christmas snow cover is a near certainty, the Farmers’ Almanac says. In these regions, most precipitation in late autumn and early winter falls as snow, making the probability of snowfall exceed 25 percent.

At higher elevations in the Rocky Mountains and at many locations between the northern Rockies and New England, the probability of snow on the ground is more than 50 percent.

For those who opt for a green Christmas, the best places to be in late December will be Southern California, the lower elevations of the Southwest, and Florida.

Of course, the Farmers’ Almanac isn’t the only expert in predicting holiday weekend weather.

Accuweather also released its 2021 holiday forecast this week, and its predictions call for a minimal chance of snow in Maryland for Christmas as well.

"The probability of a white Christmas in Boston, New York, D.C. and Baltimore is slightly lower" this year, Accuweather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said in a statement.

Typically in central Maryland, there’s a 25 to 50 percent chance of at least 1 inch of snow on the ground by the holiday weekend, according to Accuweather. This year the chance is even less.

On the other hand, Accuweather shows that western Maryland historically has at least a 75 percent chance of snow on Christmas.