White Christmas 2024: An Early Look At Dec. 25 Snow Chances In MA

MASSACHUSETTS — The probability of a white Christmas is historically around 25 percent in Boston, a projection based on three-decade averages in snow accumulation, temperatures and other climatological data.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's white Christmas probability calculations represent exact science. But they don't always match the reality on the ground, or what current forecasting models suggest for Massachusetts.

It has been a brisk start to the month across the Bay State with some areas of central and western Massachusetts already picking up more than 9 inches of snow this week. But the temperatures are forecast to moderate next week and could warm up considerably by the time Santa Claus is coming to town.

"It is a fairly easy call to say that the back half of the month will be much warmer than the front half," Atmospheric G2 VP of Meteorology Todd Crawford said. "It's just a question of degree."

It could be a stretch for those areas that got significant snow this week to hold onto it for another 19 days but some areas of Worcester County got a legitimate dumping while most of Greater Boston received an inch or less.

Hardwick was the jackpot with 9.3 inches late Wednesday night into Thursday, with Sturbridge checking in at 8.3 inches and Spencer at 8.0 inches. Worcester picked up 4.6 inches at the airport.

The most snow in Middlesex County fell in the far northwest corner in Ashby at 4 inches with neighboring Townsend checking in at 3.7 inches.

Rehoboth had 1.2 inches in Bristol County, Boxford had 0.5 inches in Essex County, Blue Hills had 1.8 inches at the observatory, Bridgewater had 1 inch in Plymouth County, with a trace of snow at Logan Airport in Suffolk County.

AccuWeather plans to release its full white Christmas forecast at mid-month, but said in a media advisory Thursday that despite bitterly cold air across much of the northern and eastern U.S. this week, a pattern change on the horizon could lead to milder temperatures with less snow on the ground before the holidays.

Right now, according to AccuWeather the best chances of seeing snow on Christmas morning are in the mountains and northern U.S. Big cities that have the greatest likelihood of a white Christmas are Denver, Chicago, Indianapolis, Boston and New York.

White Christmas mornings have been sparse in Boston in recent years — although the chances rise to closer to 40 percent once you get out in the Worcester areas.

The snowiest Christmas in the past few decades came in 1995 when 11 inches of snow fell during the holiday itself. There was also about 1 inch of snow on the ground in 2009 after 4 inches had fallen a few days earlier.

There were also winter wonderland Christmas mornings in 2002 and 2017.

The milder Pacific air mass is expected to take over and even areas that have snow on the ground could see it melt away before Christmas, the private weather company said.

NOAA's probability data also doesn't account for the expected development of a La Niña climate pattern, which could make for a snowier-than-normal winter in some parts of the country.

The timing of the La Niña could make it more likely there will be an inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. Meteorologists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expected the colder, wetter climate pattern to develop late last winter, then said in a mid-November blog that chances are about 57 percent that La Niña will develop yet this year.

"This is late for La Niña to arrive, and it's very likely to be a weak event at most," according to NOAA's ENSO Blog. "However, even a weak event can influence temperature, rain, and snow patterns across the world."

It's still early, but an extended December outlook from The Weather Channel and Atmospheric G2 said much of the country will be near or drier than average in December. Forecasters said the month started on a cold note in much of the country, but the last half of the month should be warmer for much of the Lower 48 states.

The Old Farmer's Almanac said in its 2024 white Christmas forecast that chances are slim that most of the country will have snow on the ground on Dec. 25 with only northern Maine predicted to have a snow-covered Christmas morning.