Will MA See A White Christmas? Here’s What The Odds Say

MASSACHUSETTS — While meteorologists can't yet predict with any certainty whether Bay Staters will have a white Christmas this year, the very cold December weather pattern may appear to suggest that chances are better than historical averages.

It doesn't have to snow on the big day to qualify as a white Christmas; if there's an inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning, the National Weather Service counts it. And with cold in the forecast, snow already on the ground in some parts of the state could stick around if the pattern persists.

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Past weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests the probability of a white Christmas is about 23 percent in Boston, but higher than 40 percent in Worcester, and closer to 60 percent in parts of northern Worcester County.

NOAA's analysis of historical weather patterns from 1991 to 2020 suggests certain parts of the country offer the best odds for a white Christmas, including Alaska, Minnesota, Maine, Upstate New York, the Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and virtually all of Idaho. This also holds true for the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains.

In its 2025-2026 winter outlook, NOAA said a third or more of the country will see colder-than-normal temperatures, and that it'll also be wetter, although that doesn't necessarily mean there will be more snow. A weak La Niña is expected to continue before a climate-neutral pattern takes over in January.

In its updated forecast, The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts Massachusetts will be split on a White Christmas with Boston, the North Shore, South Shore and Cape Cod not experiencing the holiday delight, while areas closer to the Merrimack Valley, Worcester County and the Berkshires will have a much better chance of waking up to a blanket of white.

The chances for a white Christmas are greatest in the Northeast, Appalachians, lower Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley. Chances aren't quite as good in the Upper Midwest, High Plains, and the Intermountain regions.

AccuWeather plans to release its 2025 Christmas forecast at mid-month. The Weather Channel also hasn't released its forecast, but said in its winter outlook that colder temperatures are expected in much of the country before it warms in January.

That is the case for Massachusetts, where a frigid start to the season may give way to a gradual warmup starting next weekend, and perhaps lasting all the way until Christmas — severely dimming hopes for that White Christmas.

The Weather Channel outlook includes a warmer-than-usual January and February.

(Scott Souza is a Patch field editor covering Beverly, Danvers, Marblehead, Peabody, Salem and Swampscott. He can be reached at Scott.Souza@Patch.com. X/Twitter: @Scott_Souza.)