Massachusetts Super Tuesday: Trump, Clinton, and More

BOSTON, MA - Super Tuesday’s voting bonanza may well winnow the nominating contest down to two clear front-runners in Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, with Massachusetts helping shape the narrative.

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Here are three things to watch for once polls close:

Trumped up expectations

Businessman, reality TV star, and often inflammatory candidate Donald Trump leads the pack in most of Republicans’ 13 Super Tuesday states. Massachusetts is no exception. Here, projections show him commanding some 40 percent of the vote, meaning the Bay State could be his biggest win yet.

Also worth watching is the potential head-to-head between Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and fellow establishment contender and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. They are neck-and-neck in the two most recent polls. A second-place win in Massachusetts means bolstering that candidate’s case as the man who can take down Trump.

For his part, Rubio ratcheted up attacks on Trump in the last debate and has spent the intervening days exchanging sometimes-petty insults with the New York Republican. Whether that pays off in the polls is worth watching.

Bern notice

Both Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Secretary of State and First Lady Hillary Clinton are in the neighborhood today, making a last-ditch stop in hopes of securing Massachusetts’ votes. In a state with so many white, liberal voters and a high concentration of college students, Sanders had hoped to fare well in the Commonwealth.

That said, a Suffolk University poll released Sunday shows Clinton primed for a win. That poll does not account for her blowout victory in South Carolina Saturday, which may well have fatally slowed Sanders’ momentum.

Wild card

The deciding question for both sides is where Massachusetts’ “unenrolled” voters gravitate. Those who haven’t aligned with a party could tip the Democrats’ contest in Sanders’ favor or deliver Trump a truly massive victory.

Like New Hampshire before us, polls here suggest heavy Independent voter turnout favors Kasich for second in the GOP race, and would help ensure a Trump tidal wave. What we don’t know is how many of these unaffiliated voters will break for Sanders. If they do, it betters his chances of landing a much-needed blow against Clinton.

Super Tuesday states award delegates proportionally to the victors. That means even significant, state-by-state wins won’t lock in Clinton or Trump as guaranteed nominee. However, it does help candidates prove their viability and consolidate support before the winner-take-all primaries coming up in states like Ohio and Florida.

» Photos by Gage Skidmore via Flickr / Creative Commons, Wikimedia Commons