NOAA: 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season May be More Active Than Recent Years

By FEROZE DHANOA (Patch National Staff)

BEDFORD, MA - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts the 2016 hurricane season to be "near-normal," with a 70 percent likelihood of 10-16 named storms, while at the same time calling it a more challenging hurricane season outlook.

In the season that runs June 1 to Nov. 30, the NOAA's current outlook calls for:

• A 70 percent likelihood of 10-16 named storms
• 4-8 of these storms could become hurricanes
• 1-4 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher)

In a phone call with the media, Kathryn Sullivan, the director of NOAA, said that the predicted level of activity, compared to the last three years, suggests a more active season than in recent years. Sullivan stressed that the outlook does not predict how many storms could make landfall.

The NOAA says El Nino is dissipating and predicts a 70 percent chance of La Nina, which favors more hurricane activity, to be present between August to October, the peak months of the hurricane season.

Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, explained that the outlook remains challenging because it will be difficult to predict whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development.

According to Bell, during the last three years, there has been a shift in an ocean temperature pattern called the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation or AMO from a warmer to a cooler phase. If the shift is more than short-lived, it could usher in a low-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes, and this period may already have begun.

High and low activity eras typically last 25 to 40 years. Bell said there is uncertainty about whether the high activity era of Atlantic hurricanes, which began in 1995, has ended.

A near-normal hurricane season is most likely, with a 45 percent chance. There is also a 30 percent chance of an above-normal season and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season.

As explained by the Washington Post, a near-normal season is most likely if, "La Niña develops and the conditions associated with a low-activity era and cool AMO also develop."

Image Credit: NOAA