Polar Vortex Is Strengthening: What It Means For MI Winter Temps, Snow

The forecast for warm temperatures on Christmas Day in Michigan is a harbinger of what’s to come for most of the country through March, according to a new winter forecast.

Highs are expected to reach the low 50s with chances for rain on Christmas Day across most of southern Michigan, according to the National Weather Service.

Forecasters expect temperatures in northern Michigan to be a bit cooler, leaving a small chance for a White Christmas in those areas.

The warmer temperatures are expected to continue into the early part of 2026 in the South and East as the stratospheric polar vortex strengthens at the beginning of the year, according to The Weather Channel’s outlook.

It may sound counterintuitive, but the stronger a polar vortex is, the less impactful it is, according to The Weather Channel. A stratospheric polar vortex, which is higher up in the atmosphere and usually stable, differs from the better-known tropospheric polar vortex, which is lower down in the atmosphere and typically brings severe cold snaps to mid-latitude states.

The ongoing flip to cooler, wetter weather in the North and Northwest is also likely to continue, the forecast said. Bouts of wetter, colder weather in other parts of the country aren’t out of the question.

The private weather service’s January to March outlook for Michigan calls for:

• January: Above average temperatures (except the Upper Peninsula)
• February: Above average temperatures (except the Upper Peninsula)
• March: Below average temperatures (except for areas along the Ohio border)

Highlights of The Weather Channel’s outlook include:

• January will likely continue the late-December pattern with above-average warmth across the southern two-thirds of the country.
• February could see the warmest weather relative to average along the East Coast.
• Without the polar vortex in play, conditions are expected to resemble La Niña: warmer than average in the south and cooler in the north.
• The northern U.S. will likely see wetter-than-average conditions, while the southern U.S. is more likely to be drier.