Will MI See A White Christmas? Here’s What The Odds Say

While meteorologists can’t yet predict with any certainty whether Michiganders will have a white Christmas this year, current predictions of a cold December suggest chances may be better than historical averages.

It doesn’t have to snow on the big day to qualify as a white Christmas; if there’s an inch of snow on the ground Christmas morning, the National Weather Service counts it. And with cold in the forecast, snow already on the ground in many parts of the country could stick around.

Past weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests the probability of a white Christmas is about 41-50 percent in metro Detroit.

The last time the Detroit area had at least an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day was in 2022 when 3 inches of snow was recorded.

Historical averages in other Michigan metro areas are:

• 61-75 percent in the Grand Rapids area
• 76-90 percent in the Traverse City area
• 91-100 percent in the Marquette area

NOAA’s analysis of historical weather patterns from 1991 to 2020 suggests certain parts of the country offer the best odds for a white Christmas, including Alaska, Minnesota, Maine, Upstate New York, the Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, and virtually all of Idaho. This also holds true for the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains.

In its 2025-2026 winter outlook, NOAA said a third or more of the country will see colder-than-normal temperatures, and that it’ll also be wetter, although that doesn’t necessarily mean there will be more snow. A weak La Niña is expected to continue before a climate-neutral pattern takes over in January.

Forecasters with the agency predict all of Michigan will see above-average precipitation from December through February. During that same timeframe, they believe Michigan will see average temperatures, except for areas in the western Upper Peninsula where colder air from the Great Plains could slide eastward.

In its updated forecast, The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts Michigan will have a White Christmas.

The chances for a white Christmas are greatest in the Northeast, Appalachians, lower Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley. Chances aren’t quite as good in the Upper Midwest, High Plains, and the Intermountain regions.

AccuWeather plans to release its 2025 Christmas forecast at mid-month. The Weather Channel also hasn’t released its forecast, but said in its winter outlook that colder temperatures are expected in much of the country before it warms in January.

The Weather Channel says temperatures across Michigan will remain below average through December, jumping above average in January. Temperatures will stay above average through February as well, according to The Weather Channel.