Perseid Meteor Shower 2016 Is Peaking Now: Sensational Or Overhyped?

Of all the shooting star shows that occur in the heavens, the Perseid meteor shower, which peaks Aug. 11-12, is the undisputed star. But this year, the Perseids are poised to offer a double feature due to what NASA calls an “outburst effect.”

“Under perfect conditions, rates could soar to 200 meteors an hour,” Bill Cook, who leads NASA’s Meteoroid Environments Office in Huntsville, Alabama, said in a statement.

Every Perseid meteor is actually a tiny piece of debris from the comet Swift-Tuttle which disintegrate in flashes of light when they hit the Earth’s atmosphere. They’re called Perseids because they seem to originate from the constellation Perseus.

Usually, the Earth just grazes the edge of the Swift-Tuttle debris stream, but this year, Jupiter’s gravity — thank you, Jupiter! — will tug the debris stream closer and Earth will more or less plow through the middle of them. Yowza!

A Perseid outburst last occurred in 2009.

Why Shower May Not Be All That

Before you pack up for an overnighter in some dark sky area, Forbes steps in to cheer you right down with a meteor-buzzkilling story about how the 2016 Perseid Meteor Shower is “awfully overhyped.”

“When everything aligns perfectly, a meteor shower can reach its maximum potential. However, not everything is perfectly aligned for this year’s Perseids,” wrote Ethan Siegel, a contributing writer for Forbes on astrophysics, space and the science of the universe.

“Despite being one of the most consistent meteor showers year in and year out, with anyone going out during the peak time for about 5-10 minutes all but guaranteed to see at least one meteor, it’s a far cry from the "spectacular show" being touted by many news outlets and science reporters,” he wrote

Siegel said the show should be better than average, but expects the increase in meteors to be “modest.” Moreover, that’s a good thing, because the number of meteors per hour depends on the Earth’s proximity to the Swift-Tuttle debris stream.

“It’s a good thing that most comets and asteroids themselves don’t cross Earth’s orbit; it would be a disaster for so many objects to collide inevitably with us!” he wrote.

What makes the Perseids such an anticipated meteor shower is the speed they move relative to Earth and how that affects the brightness of the shooting stars. They come from a comet that takes 133 years to orbit the Earth and move with nearly three times the energy of slow-moving debris streams like December’s Geminids, so the Perseids are brighter and more easily seen. This year is no different than any other year in that respect, Siegel wrote.

And then there’s the attention-grabbing moon.

A waxing moon — that is, one that is greater than half full — will provide light pollution until it sets after midnight. So, you’ll have to stay up ridiculously late — or get up ridiculously early — to see them.

In Detroit, moonset is at 12:50 a.m. and 1:26 a.m. EDT on Aug. 11 and Aug. 12, respectively; in New York, moonset is at 12:16 a.m. and 12:53 a.m. EDT; in Chicago, moonset is at 12:09 a.m. CDT and 12:46 a.m. CDT; in Austin, Texas, moonset is at 1:10 a.m. CDT and 1:50 a.m. CDT; in Portland, Oregon, moonset is at 12:25 a.m. PDT and 1:01 a.m. PDT.

Also, Siegel wrote, the Swift-Tuttle comet is moving away from the Earth, and that’s a big deal with it comes to the Perseids.

“The debris stream is densest around a comet’s (or asteroid’s) nucleus, and Swift-Tuttle is presently moving away from Earth. It made its closest approach to the Sun back in 1992, and won’t be back until 2126. The Perseids are also less variable and more consistent than many other showers, but have been steadily decreasing (on average) in meteors-per-hour since the early 1990s, and will continue to do so over the coming years and decades.”

If you want a truly awesome meteor shower, you’ll have to wait almost two decades, according to Siegel.

“The Leonids ... tend to peak every 33 years on average, with the year 2034 providing a major enhancement if you look at the right time,” he wrote.

In the meantime, here’s a time-lapse from the 2015 Perseid meteor shower.

Fall, Winter Meteor Showers

Oct. 7, Draconids: This shower also favors the Northern Hemisphere. What sets this shower apart from others is that the Draconids are most likely to fly in the evening hours. It’s usually a sleeper of a sky show, earthsky.org says, but in rare instances, the constellation Draco the Dragon in the northern sky can fire off hundreds of meteors in a single hour. A waxing crescent moon could intrude some on this shower.

• Patch’s Complete 2016 Meteor Shower, Full and Supermoon Guide

Oct. 20-21,Orionids: The glare of a waning gibbous moon in the early morning hours just before sunrise could intrude with the Orionids, which typically produce 10 to 20 meteors per hour. Most meteors in this shower tend to fall after midnight, and they’re typically at their best in the wee hours just before dawn. The Orionids also sometimes present bright fireballs.

Nov. 4-5, South Taurids: Though the best viewing conditions are likely to be after midnight on Nov. 5, the Taurids are very long-lasting, from Sept. 25-Nov. 25. They only offer about seven meteors an hour, but the Taurids are known for having a high percentage of fireballs. This is the first of two Taurid meteor showers, and it always adds a few more meteors to the South Taurids’ peak night.

Nov. 11-12, North Taurids: This shower is long-lasting, too, from Oct. 12-Dec. 2, but modest as well with only about seven meteors an hour, with most of the activity taking place around midnight. The meteors are slow moving, but very bright. The waxing gibbous moon could outshine this year’s shower.

Nov. 16-17, Leonids: Some of the greatest meteor storms in history have been associated with his event, which can produce rates of thousands of meteors per minute during a span of 15 minutes, as occurred on Nov. 17, 1966. “ Some who witnessed the 1966 Leonid meteor storm said they felt as if they needed to grip the ground, so strong was the impression of Earth plowing along through space, fording the meteoroid stream,” earthsky.org says. In most years, though, the constellation of Leo the Lion whimpers rather than roars, producing about 10 to 15 meteors an hour, especially just before dawn this year. Unfortunately, the bright light of a waning gibbous moon will offer some competition.

Dec.13-14, Geminids: The last major meteor shower of the year is usually one of the finest meteor showers visible in either the Northern or the Southern Hemisphere, but a full moon will be out all night, subduing the typically prolific Geminids, which can produce up to 120 meteors per hour. The shower peaks around 2 a.m.

Dec. 21-22, Ursids: This minor meteor shower often goes unnoticed. Produced by the dust grains left behind by the comet Tuttle, it produces only about five to 10 meteors an hour. The shower runs from Dec. 17-25, but it should peak around the 21st. The moon will be 23 days old at the time of peak activity, so it shouldn’t present too much of a problem.

Image: Anthony Stewart Vardy via Flickr / Creative Commons