Where Is Fall? Temps In 90s For Twin Cities Marathon Weekend

ST. PAUL, MN — Runners heading to the Medtronic Twin Cities Marathon weekend should prepare for conditions that feel more like July than October.

Twin Cities In Motion, which organizes the marathon and Saturday races, said events will start under Yellow flag conditions, "less-than-ideal," and are likely to move into Red flag territory as the morning warms.

That means "potentially hazardous" weather for runners.

Saturday Forecast: Races begin at 7:15 a.m. with temperatures already near 73 degrees and a dew point of 60. By late morning, the National Weather Service expects temps around 80 degrees, with the day’s high reaching near 91 degrees, close to a record for October.

Sunday Forecast: The marathon and 10-mile race begin at 6:55 a.m. at about 72 degrees. By 10 a.m., temps could climb to 74 degrees, rising to 78 degrees around noon and near 80 degrees by mid-afternoon, when the final runners finish.

Organizers said Black flag conditions, which would indicate extreme danger and possible cancellation, are not expected. The marathon has been run in similar heat before, and medical staff will be on alert. Participants will receive official updates by 8:30 p.m. the night before their race.

A Fall Heat Wave Out Of Season

The marathon is usually contested in crisp fall weather, with many years seeing temps in the 50s or 60s. But this weekend’s heat is anything but typical.

NOAA climate records from the St. Paul Downtown Airport show the average first freeze (32°F) usually arrives by October 13–16. Instead of frost, marathoners in 2025 will be running in 80-degree heat, nearly 30 degrees above normal.

And the heat doesn’t stop here. The latest NOAA 8–14 Day Outlook, issued Oct. 2, shows Minnesota has a high probability of staying above normal through at least Oct. 16. Much of the central U.S. is under the same outlook, signaling that summerlike warmth is sticking around well into mid-October.

Bigger Picture

A strong cold front is expected to sweep through late Sunday, dropping highs back into the 60s next week. But forecasters caution this is part of a broader warming pattern.

Climate data shows Minnesota’s falls are warming faster than average, with longer summers, shorter frost seasons, and more late-season heat waves.

For runners, that means an October marathon that feels more like midsummer. For everyone else, it’s a sign that fall in Minnesota doesn’t look or feel the way it used to.