State Revenues Show Signs Of Life But Still On Shaky Ground

By GARRY RAYNO, InDepthNH

CONCORD, NH — Budget writers finally found some good news concerning their revenue forecast last month, but most of it was due to an accounting adjustment between fiscal years 2025 and 2026.

For November, state revenues were $23.2 million more for the month than estimates, a welcome relief from monthly revenue deficits for most of the 2026 fiscal year to date.

For November general and education trust fund revenues totaled $165.4 million, while the estimate for the month is $142.2 million, with larger than anticipated returns for real estate transfer and business taxes, and Lottery Commission transfers to the Education Trust Fund.

However, the biggest boost to state revenues for the month was a $17.3 million accrual adjustment for refunds the state paid to Interest and Dividends payees in fiscal year 2025 due to the appeal of the tax last year.

According to the Department of Revenue Administration, “(Department of Administrative Services) reported the $17.3 million in (Interest and Dividends) refunds as an accrual adjustment in the fiscal year 2025 audited Annual Comprehensive Financial Report (ACFR) and accordingly, should not be accounted for as a reduction of unrestricted revenue in fiscal year 2026.”

The long awaited revenues from video lottery terminals that budget writers are counting on to boost state revenues, were well below estimates for the first month, producing only $400,000 instead of the $4 million estimated.

For the first five months of the 2026 fiscal year, revenues totaled $871.1 million, $6.2 million below estimates and $10.5 million less than a year ago.

Business taxes were the largest revenue contributor in March producing $28.6 million, which was $3.9 million over estimates and $12.1 million more than last November.

According to the Department of Revenue Administration, “the increase in this month's Business Tax revenue over the prior year was due to an increase in corporation payments, as well as the timing of refunds that will be processed in December.”

Refunds for November were $5 million, much lower than a year ago when they were $12. 2 million, and for fiscal 2024, when they were $8.2 million. Refunds have been mostly between $8 million and $10 million a month this fiscal year.

For the year to date, business taxes have produced $283 million, which is $6.8 million less than in fiscal 2025, and $22.7 million less than estimates.

Rooms and meals revenue was $200,000 below estimates, returning $31.1million for the month, which is $600,000 more than a year ago.

The DRA said the activity reflects an increase in taxable meals of 4.7 percent and a 0.6 percent increase for hotels.

For the year to date, the levy has produced $168.5 million, which is $1.1 million below estimates, but $6.1 million more than a year ago.

The real estate transfer tax produced $26.3 million for November, which is $5.7 more than estimates and $7.1 million more than a year ago.

According to the DRA a large commercial building sale in Hillsborough County boosted revenues for the month.

The DRA reported transactions were up 9.9 percent for the month, and property value was up 36.6 percent for the month.

For the year to date, the levy produced $110.6 million, which is $4.3 million ahead of estimates and $16.8 million more than a year ago.

The Lottery Commission produced $20.4 million for November, which is $5.1 million more than estimates and $7.1 million more than a year ago.

The DRA noted “The increase is due to strong Mega Millions and Keno sales, as well as sports betting and Historical Horse Racing.”

They noted the video lottery revenues did not begin until the end of October and the commission anticipates steady increases each month.

For the year to date, the Lottery Commission has produced $78.8 million, which is $16.7 million more than estimates, and $19.8 million more than a year ago.

The insurance tax and the “Other” category, which includes interest on state holdings, were slightly above estimates for the month, but other revenue categories were below estimates for November, including the tobacco tax and liquor commission revenues, which both continue to perform considerably below estimates for the year, along with the communications, beer and utility property taxes, and securities revenue.

The Highway Fund comprised largely of the gas tax and vehicle registrations produced $19.5 million for November, which is $2.2 million less than estimates and $1.5 million less than a year ago.

For the first five months of the fiscal year, the fund totaled $109.2 million, which is $5.6 million less than estimates and $5.1 million less than a year ago.

The Fish and Game Fund, comprised of fishing and hunting licenses, collected $700,00 for the month, which is on estimate and $100,000 more than a year ago.

For the year-to-date, the fund collected $6.5 million, which is $100,000 below estimates, but $200,000 more than a year ago.

December collections are traditionally much larger than November’s, due mainly to business tax filings due this month.

Garry Rayno may be reached at garry.rayno@yahoo.com.

This article first appeared on InDepthNH.org and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.